Be known by the company you keep: Citations — quality or chance?

We examine the determinants of five year citations to papers published in the American Economic Review and the Economic Journal. Citations are positively related to page length and position in the journal. Both of these variables are consistent with the hypothesis that citations reflect paper quality, as is the number of subsequent self-citations. However, the publication of a major paper, as judged by subsequent citations, significantly increases the citations of other papers in an issue and this indicates the importance of chance in determining citations.