Estimating the Uptake of Distributed Energy in an Urban Setting

Distributed energy (DE) solutions encompass local power generation and technologies that reduce the net electrical demand of an end-user while maintaining lifestyle and comfort levels. The deployment of DE is increasingly being seen as an option to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through increased efficiency. Significant deployment of DE requires a paradigm shift from the centralised energy supply model that currently operates in the capital cities of Australia. Public acceptance of DE is necessary to bring this about as these options require 'ownership' at a local level (e.g. household, street or suburb). In this paper we use geographic information system (GIS) methods to estimate the potential uptake of renewable electricity generation technologies in an urban setting. Estimates of the physical potential for deployment of small wind turbines and residential solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the Greater Sydney region have been formulated from a combination of building type, technology performance and climate variables. These estimates based on physical constraints are compared to penetration levels estimated by economic forecasts as constrained only by demand and supply at the state scale, as well as being compared to customer acceptance estimates determined from a survey of public attitudes to different technologies. The work to date indicates that there exists significant physical potential for residential solar PV due to consistency of the solar resource and the dominance of one-storey detached dwellings in the residential building stock across the region. In contrast, the potential for wind is hampered by land use constraints. Solar PV is also more socially acceptable compared to wind. However, it appears to be economic feasibility that limits the deployment prospects for these technologies.