Exploring the Effects of Perception Errors and Anticipation Strategies on Traffic Accidents - A Simulation Study

It is remarkable that drivers (on average) can safely navigate through dense traffic at high speeds—conditions in which the time headways between vehicles are in the same order of magnitude as human reaction times. One explanation for this is the ability of drivers to anticipate on the traffic conditions in their surroundings. In this paper, we study, through simulation, the effects of reaction times, errors in perception and anticipation on the probability of accidents on freeways. To this end we extend an existing model for car following and lane changing with a perception and anticipation model inspired by Ensley’s three levels of situational awareness (perception, understanding and projection). By systematically varying driving behavior with different reaction times over a range of perception errors, and anticipation strategies, we compute efficiency effects (capacity and total time spent) and safety effects (the probability density of accidents happening as a function of these different contributing factors and errors). The results provide some evidence that safe driving is robust with respect to perception errors under simple anticipation strategies and small reaction times. When reaction times grow larger, more advanced anticipation strategies are needed to guarantee safe driving.

[1]  Joe Lee,et al.  Characterizing and Modeling Observed Lane-Changing Behavior: Lane-Vehicle-Based Microscopic Simulation on Urban Street Network , 2000 .

[2]  Serge P. Hoogendoorn,et al.  Empirics of Multianticipative Car-Following Behavior , 2006 .

[3]  M J Lighthill,et al.  On kinematic waves II. A theory of traffic flow on long crowded roads , 1955, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A. Mathematical and Physical Sciences.

[4]  Carlos F. Daganzo,et al.  Lane-changing in traffic streams , 2006 .

[5]  Charisma Farheen Choudhury,et al.  Modeling driving decisions with latent plans , 2007 .

[6]  P. I. Richards.  Shock Waves on the Highway , 1956 .

[7]  Serge P. Hoogendoorn,et al.  Genealogy of traffic flow models , 2015, EURO J. Transp. Logist..

[8]  Helbing,et al.  Congested traffic states in empirical observations and microscopic simulations , 2000, Physical review. E, Statistical physics, plasmas, fluids, and related interdisciplinary topics.

[9]  Boris S. Kerner,et al.  Deterministic microscopic three-phase traffic flow models , 2006 .

[10]  Alexander Verbraeck,et al.  Getting the Human Factor into Traffic Flow Models: New Open-Source Design to Simulate Next Generation of Traffic Operations , 2016 .

[11]  Dirk Helbing,et al.  Delays, inaccuracies and anticipation in microscopic traffic models , 2006 .

[12]  Serge P. Hoogendoorn,et al.  Properties of a Microscopic Heterogeneous Multi-Anticipative Traffic Flow Model , 2007 .

[13]  Dirk Helbing,et al.  General Lane-Changing Model MOBIL for Car-Following Models , 2007 .

[14]  K. Hasebe,et al.  Analysis of optimal velocity model with explicit delay , 1998, patt-sol/9805002.

[15]  Ludovic Leclercq,et al.  A mechanism to describe the formation and propagation of stop-and-go waves in congested freeway traffic , 2010, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[16]  Boris S. Kerner,et al.  Deterministic approach to microscopic three-phase traffic theory , 2005, physics/0507120.

[17]  L. A. Pipes.  An Operational Analysis of Traffic Dynamics , 1953 .

[18]  D. Gazis,et al.  Nonlinear Follow-the-Leader Models of Traffic Flow , 1961 .

[19]  Rainer Wiedemann,et al.  SIMULATION DES STRASSENVERKEHRSFLUSSES. , 1974 .

[20]  Victor L. Knoop,et al.  Integrated Lane Change Model with Relaxation and Synchronization , 2012 .

[21]  S L Cohen.  Application of Relaxation Procedure for Lane Changing in Microscopic Simulation Models , 2004 .

[22]  Frank H Durgin,et al.  The underestimation of egocentric distance: evidence from frontal matching tasks , 2011, Attention, perception & psychophysics.

[23]  H. C. Dickinson,et al.  THE PHOTOGRAPHIC METHOD OF STUDYING TRAFFIC BEHAVIOR , 1934 .

[24]  Gordon F. Newell,et al.  A simplified car-following theory: a lower order model , 2002 .