Quantitative analysis of the public charging-point evolution: A demand-driven spatial modeling approach

The coverage standard of the current publicly accessible charging infrastructure is insufficient and considered as a major obstacle in the introduction to the market of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). Therefore, it is necessary to establish a publicly accessible charging infrastructure that features an appropriate coverage standard. The aim of this study is to support a spatially differentiated and demand-driven infrastructure development that ensures a desired coverage standard. For this purpose, we developed a calculation model which is applied to cumulated PEV sales and the inventory of publicly accessible charging points, in Germany with the spatial resolution of administrative districts. The required public charging-point evolution until 2040 is calculated for a given PEV market diffusion. In 2015, an appropriate coverage standard was achieved in only some regions of Germany; this means that the probability of finding access to a free public charging point at the desired time of charging is at least 90%. When one considers the entire country, however, it becomes clear that an additional 3600 publicly available charging points are needed. By 2040, the provision of approximately 730,000 public charging points could ensure an appropriate coverage standard for an estimated 17.8 million PEVs. The study results show that the rate of public charging-point deployment can decrease once PEV sales increase. The economically feasible operation of public charging infrastructure highly depends on the average utilization rate and it appears to be challenging to reach profitability by only selling the electricity.