Measurement, Data Interpretation, and Uncertainty Propagation for Fatigue Assessments of Structures

The real behavior of existing structures is usually associated with large uncertainty that is often covered by the use of conservative models and code practices for the evaluation of remaining fatigue lives. To make better decisions related to retrofit and replacement of existing bridges, new techniques that can quantify fatigue reserve capacity are required. This paper presents a population-based prognosis methodology that takes advantage of in-service behavior measurements using model-based data interpretation. This approach is combined with advanced traffic and fatigue models to refine remaining fatigue-life predictions. Study of a full-scale bridge revealed that this methodology provides less conservative estimations of remaining fatigue lives. In addition, this approach propagates uncertainties associated with finite-element, traffic, and fatigue-damage models to quantify their effects on fatigue-damage assessments and shows that traffic models and structural model parameters are the most influential sources of uncertainty.

[1]  Eric R. Ziegel,et al.  Statistical Size Distributions in Economics and Actuarial Sciences , 2004, Technometrics.

[2]  Alain Nussbaumer,et al.  Effect of tensile residual stresses on fatigue crack growth and S–N curves in tubular joints loaded in compression , 2012 .

[3]  Andreas Andersson,et al.  Monitoring and enhanced fatigue evaluation of a steel railway bridge , 2010 .

[4]  David J. C. MacKay,et al.  Information Theory, Inference, and Learning Algorithms , 2004, IEEE Transactions on Information Theory.

[5]  Dan M. Frangopol,et al.  Fatigue Assessment and Service Life Prediction of Existing Steel Bridges by Integrating SHM into a Probabilistic Bilinear S-N Approach , 2013 .

[6]  Dan M. Frangopol,et al.  Fatigue reliability assessment of retrofitted steel bridges integrating monitored data , 2010 .

[7]  Tong Guo,et al.  Fatigue reliability assessment of steel bridge details integrating weigh-in-motion data and probabilistic finite element analysis , 2012 .

[8]  P.C.G. da S. Vellasco,et al.  Composite (steel–concrete) highway bridge fatigue assessment , 2011 .

[9]  Wolfgang Fricke,et al.  Fatigue analysis of welded components : designer's guide to the structural hot-spot stress approach (IIW-1430-00) , 2006 .

[10]  Alain Nussbaumer,et al.  Fatigue design of bridges with welded circular hollow sections , 2003 .

[11]  T H Meystre,et al.  Evaluation de ponts routiers existants avec un modele de charge de trafic actualise , 2006 .

[12]  Jenný Brynjarsdóttir,et al.  Learning about physical parameters: the importance of model discrepancy , 2014 .

[13]  Juan R. Casas,et al.  A comprehensive traffic load model for bridge safety checking , 1997 .

[14]  K. Yuen.  Bayesian Methods for Structural Dynamics and Civil Engineering , 2010 .

[15]  Zhifeng Liu,et al.  Calibration of imprecise and inaccurate numerical models considering fidelity and robustness: a multi-objective optimization-based approach , 2014, Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization.

[16]  Xiao Ling Zhao,et al.  Fatigue design procedure for welded hollow section joints , 2000 .

[17]  Rap Sweeney.  THE LOAD SPECTRUM FOR THE FRASER RIVER BRIDGE AT NEW WESTMINSTER, BC , 1976 .

[18]  G. Box,et al.  A Basis for the Selection of a Response Surface Design , 1959 .

[19]  Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles,et al.  Large-Scale Hybrid Bayesian Network for Traffic Load Modeling from Weigh-in-Motion System Data , 2015 .

[20]  Ove T. Gudmestad,et al.  APPLICATION OF NEW DAMAGE INDICATOR-BASED SEQUENTIAL LAW TO ESTIMATE FATIGUE LIFE OF OFFSHORE JACKET STRUCTURES , 2015 .

[21]  Ismail Farajpour,et al.  Error and Uncertainty Analysis of Inexact and Imprecise Computer Models , 2013, J. Comput. Civ. Eng..

[22]  J. Beck,et al.  Bayesian Updating of Structural Models and Reliability using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation , 2002 .

[23]  Darrell F. Socie,et al.  Simple rainflow counting algorithms , 1982 .

[24]  J. Coyle.  Inverse Problems , 2004 .

[25]  Wolfgang Fricke,et al.  Fatigue Analysis of Welded Components : Designer's Guide to the Hot-Spot Stress Approach , 2006 .

[26]  I. Smith,et al.  Structural identification with systematic errors and unknown uncertainty dependencies , 2013 .

[27]  J. Beck.  Bayesian system identification based on probability logic , 2010 .

[28]  Jian Zhang,et al.  Advanced Markov Chain Monte Carlo Approach for Finite Element Calibration under Uncertainty , 2013, Comput. Aided Civ. Infrastructure Eng..

[29]  Masoud Rais-Rohani,et al.  A comparative study of metamodeling methods for multiobjective crashworthiness optimization , 2005 .

[30]  Ian F. C. Smith,et al.  Robust system identification and model predictions in the presence of systematic uncertainty , 2015, Adv. Eng. Informatics.

[31]  A. Hobbacher.  Recommendations for fatigue design of welded joints and components , 2016 .

[32]  Marc B Neumann,et al.  Underestimation of uncertainty in statistical regression of environmental models: influence of model structure uncertainty. , 2008, Environmental science & technology.

[33]  Farshid Zamiri Akhlaghi,et al.  Welding Simulation and Fatigue Assessment of Tubular K-Joints in High-Strength Steel , 2014 .

[34]  J. Beck,et al.  Updating Models and Their Uncertainties. I: Bayesian Statistical Framework , 1998 .

[35]  Dan M. Frangopol,et al.  Fatigue performance assessment and service life prediction of high-speed ship structures based on probabilistic lifetime sea loads , 2010 .

[36]  Jan Ming Ko,et al.  Fatigue damage model for bridge under traffic loading: application made to Tsing Ma Bridge , 2001 .

[37]  Mitao Ohga,et al.  Application of new damage indicator-based sequential law for remaining fatigue life estimation of railway bridges , 2008 .

[38]  Keith Beven,et al.  A manifesto for the equifinality thesis , 2006 .

[39]  Y. Edward Zhou,et al.  Assessment of Bridge Remaining Fatigue Life through Field Strain Measurement , 2005 .

[40]  F Moses,et al.  Fatigue evaluation procedures for steel bridges , 1987 .

[41]  Romain Pasquier,et al.  Improving Fatigue Evaluations of Structures Using In-Service Behavior Measurement Data , 2014 .

[42]  K. M. Golos,et al.  Cumulative fatigue damage , 1988 .

[43]  Bernard Enright,et al.  Review of HL-93 Bridge Traffic Load Model Using an Extensive WIM Database , 2015 .

[44]  C. Papadimitrioua,et al.  Updating robust reliability using structural test data , 2001 .

[45]  Y. L. Chen,et al.  Theoretical and Applied Fracture Mechanics , 2014 .