Inverse Problem of Power System Reliability Evaluation: Analytical Model and Solution Method

Power system reliability evaluation (PSRE) typically involves with finding the system (or bus) reliability index from known component reliability parameters. In this paper, we consider the case of using the system (or bus) reliability index to obtain the unknown component reliability parameter (UCRP). This problem is called the inverse PSRE problem. Analytical model of the inverse PSRE problem is constructed and formulated as the nonlinear algebraic equations. In particular, analytical models for the composite generation and transmission system and the generating system are developed based on the state enumeration method. Solution method using the interval analysis is developed by transforming the nonlinear algebraic equations into the interval nonlinear equations with UCRPs represented by the interval numbers. A modified Krawczyk-operator algorithm based on interval bisection elimination scheme is developed to overcome the difficulty of selecting the appropriate initial interval in the problem-solving process. The RBTS, IEEE-RTS, and a 91-bus system are used for the case study to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model and the solution method. In addition, an application to power system planning is investigated to examine how the component reliability parameters can be modified quantitatively to achieve the desired system reliability improvement.