Recent developments in pedestrian flow theory and research in Russia

Abstract Predtechenskii and Milinskii's seminal work [Predtechenskii VM, Milinskii AI. Planning for foot traffic flow in buildings. Revised and updated edition. Moscow: Stoiizdat; 1969] in relation to pedestrian flows is well known. However, analysis of the experimental results and observations obtained from this series of experimental studies revealed the inherent statistical non-homogeneity of pedestrian flow speeds [Kholshevnikov VV. The study of human flows and methodology of evacuation standardisation. Moscow: MIFS; 1999]. As such, the results of these individual experiments cannot be integrated to produce a valid general expression V=f(D) for each type of pedestrian flow path, where V is the flow velocity and D is the flow density. This paper presents further pedestrian flow research conducted in Russia post 1969. In this paper pedestrian flow is treated as a stochastic process, i.e., that which might be observed in a series of experiments as a manifestation of the random function V=f(D). A fundamentally new random methodology to mathematically describe this function is presented. Corresponding computer simulation models “Analysis of Foot Traffic Flow Probability” (known by the Russian acronym ADLPV) [Kholshevnikov VV. Human flows in buildings, structures and on their adjoining territories. Doctor of science thesis. Moscow: MISI; 1983; Kholshevnikov VV, Nikonov SA, Levin YP. Human flows modelling and computations. In: The study of architecture design issues. Tomsk: TGU; 1983; Kholschevnikov VV, Nikonov SA, Shamgunov RN. Modelling and analysis of motion of foot traffic flows in buildings of different usage. Moscow Civil Engineering Institute; 1986; Kholshevnikov VV, Nikonov SA, Shamgunov RN. Modelling and analysis of pedestrian of pedestrian flow movement in various facilities. CIB W14/87/41987; Bradley D, Drysdale D, Molkov V, editors. Retrospective review of research on pedestrian flows modelling in Russia and perspectives for its development. In: Proceedings of the fourth international seminar “fire and explosion hazards”, Londonderry, UK, 8–12 September 2003. p. 907–16; Nikonov SA. A development of an arrangements concerning fire evacuation in public buildings on the basic of foot traffic flow modelling. PhD thesis, (Supervisor V.V. Kholshevnikov). Moscow: HFSETS; 1985; Isaevich II. A development of multi-variative analysis of design solution for subway stations and transfer knots based on foot traffic flow modelling. PhD thesis, (Supervisor V.V. Kholshevnikov). Moscow: MISI; 1990] and “Free Foot Traffic Flow” (known by the Russian acronym SDLP) [Kholshevnikov VV. Human flows in buildings, structures and on their adjoining territories. Doctor of science thesis. Moscow: MISI; 1983; Aibuev ZS-A. The formation of foot traffic flows on large industrial territories. PhD thesis, Moscow: Moscow Civil Engineering Institute; 1989; Nikonov SA. A development of an arrangements concerning fire evacuation in public buildings on the basic of foot traffic flow modelling. PhD thesis, (Supervisor V.V. Kholshevnikov). Moscow: HFSETS; 1985; Kholshevnikov VV, Shields TJ, Samoshyn DA. Foot traffic flows: background for modelling. Proceedings of the second international conference on pedestrian and evacuation dynamics, University of Greenwich, 2003, p. 420] are described. The high degree of correspondence between observed pedestrian flows and the output from these models has been sufficient for the models to be accepted by statutory authorities and used in building design and regulation in Russia [Building regulations. Fire safety of buildings and structures. SNiP II-2-80. Moscow: Stroizdat; 1981. [12] ; State Standard 12.1.0004—91 (GOST). Fire Safety. General requirements. Moscow, 1992; Building Regulations. Building accessibility for disabled people. SNiP 35-01-2000. Moscow: Stroizdat; 2000] for many years.