Worth of head data in well-capture zone design: deterministic and stochastic analysis

Abstract In this study, we examine the effects of conditioning spatially variable transmissivity fields using head and/or transmissivity measurements on well-capture zones. In order to address the challenge posed by conditioning a flow model with spatially varying parameters, an innovative inverse algorithm, the Representers method, is employed. The method explicitly considers this spatial variability. A number of uniform measurement grids with different densities are used to condition transmissivity fields using the Representers method. Deterministic and stochastic analysis of well-capture zones are then examined. The deterministic study focuses on comparison between reference well-capture zones and their estimated mean conditioned on head data. It shows that model performance due to head conditioning on well-capture zone estimation is related to pumping rate. At moderate pumping rates transmissivity observations are more crucial to identify effects arising from small-scale variations in pore water velocity. However, with more aggressive pumping these effects are reduced, consequently model performance, through incorporating head observations, markedly improves. In the stochastic study, the effect of conditioning using head and/or transmissivity data on well-capture zone uncertainty is examined. The Representers method is coupled with the Monte Carlo method to propagate uncertainty in transmissivity fields to well-capture zones. For the scenario studied, the results showed that a combination of 48 head and transmissivity data could reduce the area of uncertainty (95% confidence interval) in well-capture zone location by over 50%, compared to a 40% reduction using either head or transmissivity data. This performance was comparable to that obtained through calibrating on three and a half times the number of head observations alone.

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