Suppression of south Asian summer monsoon precipitation in the 21st century

We used a high‐resolution nested climate modeling system to investigate the response of South Asian summer monsoon dynamics to anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. The simulated dynamical features of the summer monsoon compared well with reanalysis data and observations. Further, we found that enhanced greenhouse forcing resulted in overall suppression of summer precipitation, a delay in monsoon onset, and an increase in the occurrence of monsoon break periods. Weakening of the large‐scale monsoon flow and suppression of the dominant intraseasonal oscillatory modes were instrumental in the overall weakening of the South Asian summer monsoon. Such changes in monsoon dynamics could have substantial impacts by decreasing summer precipitation in key areas of South Asia.

[1]  W. Landman.  Climate change 2007: the physical science basis , 2010 .

[2]  F. Doblas-Reyes,et al.  Toward Seamless Prediction: Calibration of Climate Change Projections Using Seasonal Forecasts , 2008 .

[3]  Harold E. Brooks,et al.  Changes in severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing , 2007, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[4]  Raquel V. Francisco,et al.  Regional Climate Modeling for the Developing World: The ICTP RegCM3 and RegCNET , 2007 .

[5]  Kevin Hamilton,et al.  The South Asian Summer Monsoon and Its Relationship with ENSO in the IPCC AR4 Simulations , 2007 .

[6]  H. Seo,et al.  The Scripps Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Regional (SCOAR) Model, with Applications in the Eastern Pacific Sector , 2007 .

[7]  Li Chongyin,et al.  Atmospheric Circulation Characteristics Associated with the Onset of Asian Summer Monsoon , 2006 .

[8]  L. S. Rathore,et al.  Impact of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture: A Review , 2006 .

[9]  W. Collins,et al.  The Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3) , 2006 .

[10]  G. B. Pant,et al.  High-resolution climate change scenarios for India for the 21st century , 2006 .

[11]  J. Patz,et al.  Impact of regional climate change on human health , 2005, Nature.

[12]  P. Xavier,et al.  ENSO control on the south Asian monsoon through the length of the rainy season , 2005 .

[13]  William M. Putman,et al.  Hurricane forecasting with the high‐resolution NASA finite volume general circulation model , 2005 .

[14]  V. B. Rao,et al.  Decreasing trend in the strength of Tropical Easterly Jet during the Asian summer monsoon season and the number of tropical cyclonic systems over Bay of Bengal , 2004 .

[15]  K. Taylor,et al.  High-resolution simulations of global climate, part 1: present climate , 2003 .

[16]  R. Neale,et al.  The Maritime Continent and Its Role in the Global Climate: A GCM Study , 2003 .

[17]  R. Neilson,et al.  Estimated migration rates under scenarios of global climate change , 2002 .

[18]  Bin Wang,et al.  Rainy Season of the Asian-Pacific Summer Monsoon(. , 2002 .

[19]  P. Webster,et al.  Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction , 1998 .

[20]  M. Yanai,et al.  The onset and interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon in relation to land-sea thermal contrast , 1996 .

[21]  Jagadish Shukla.  Barotropic-Baroclinic instability of mean zonal wind during summer monsoon , 1977 .

[22]  Adam A. Scaife,et al.  I Toward Seamless Prediction: Calibration of Climate Change Projections Using Seasonal Forecasts , 2009 .

[23]  O. Edenhofer,et al.  Mitigation from a cross-sectoral perspective , 2007 .

[24]  S. Schiavon,et al.  Climate change 2007 : the physical science basis : contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2007 .

[25]  O. N. Dhar,et al.  Hydrometeorological Aspects of Floods in India , 2003 .

[26]  Bhupendra Nath Goswami,et al.  A broad‐scale circulation index for the interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon , 1999 .

[27]  B. Parthasarathy,et al.  Indian summer monsoon rainfall indices : 1871-1990 , 1992 .