Water Flooding Performance Evaluation Using

DWHU�ARRGLQJLVDZHOONQRZQ� VHFRQGDU\�PHFKDQLVPIRULPSURYLQJRLOUHFRYHU\��&RQYH QWLRQDO� DSSURDFKWRHYDOXDWHWKHSHUIRUPDQFHRIDZDWHU�ARRGLQJSURFHVV��HJ��EUHDNWKURXJKDQGSRVWEUHDN� through behavior) is to establish a reliable geological reservoir model, upscale it, and then perform ARZVLPXODWLRQV��7RHYDOXDWHWKHXQFHUWDLQW\�LQWKHEUHDNWKURXJKWLPHRUSRVWEUHDNWKURXJKEHKDY� ior, this procedure has to be repeated for many realizations of the geological model, which takes many hours of CPU time. Moreover, during the early stage of reservoir life, when data is scare, breakthrough and post breakthrough time behavior prediction are usually based on analogues or rules of thumb. Alternative statistical approach is to use percolation theory to predict breakthrough and post breakthrough bahavior. The main contribution is to evaluate the applicability of the exist- LQJVFDOLQJODZVRIWKHEUHDNWKURXJKWLPHE\�WKHQXPHULFDO�ARZVLPXODWLRQUHVXOWVXVLQJWKH�%XUJDQ� IRUPDWLRQGDWDVHWRI�1RURX)�RIIVKRUHRLO?HOGLQWKHVRXWKRI�,UDQ��0RUHRYHU��ZHH(WHQGWKHVFDOLQJ� to the post breakthrough behavior. There is good agreement between the predictions from the per- colation based expressions and the numerical simulation results. Moreover, the prediction from the scaling law took a fraction of a second of CPU times (as it only needs some algebraic calculations) compared with many hours required for the conventional numerical simulations.