The duration of contract strikes in U.S. manufacturing

This paper develops new evidence on the hazard function for strike duration, and on cyclical changes in this function, using data on contract strikes in U.S. manufacturing industries. A flexible duration model is estimated, and it is found that the hazard rate is generally a U-shaped function of strike age. The level of industrial production is found to have a significant positive effect on the hazard rate: strike duration is countercyclical. A convenient parametric model of heterogeneity and duration dependence is introduced, in which the logit of the hazard rate is a polynomial function of strike age, up to a random individual effect drawn from a beta distribution. Estimates of this ‘beta-logit’ model indicate that it is difficult to detect the influence of unobserved heterogeneity on the aggregate hazard function for strike duration.

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