Trajectory prediction of oil spill with Pisces 2 around Bay of Izmir, Turkey.

The purpose of this study is to determine the risky areas by simulating trajectory of ship based oil spill in Bay of Izmir. To get well informed about fate, this study makes the best possible use one trajectory model. PISCES 2 (Potential Incident Simulation, Control and. Evaluation System), has been conducted for simulation of main weathering processes of oil spill. Hence in order to identify the risky areas, two scenarios have been developed depending on the type and amount of pollutants. In this study it is concluded that Yenikale, Inciralti and Guzelbahce will be at risk of contamination in case of accidental oil spill at Yenikale Entrance. Finally, the PISCES 2 software provided highly reliable solutions in evaporation rate and dispersion rate calculations when compared to approaches accepted in the literature. However in the surface area calculations, there is a serious difference between the size of the area calculated by the software and the size of the area proposed by oil spill science.

[1]  R. J. Fraga,et al.  A model of residual currents and pollutant transport in the Arabian Gulf , 1988 .

[2]  D Mackay,et al.  Evaporation rate of spills of hydrocarbons and petroleum mixtures. , 1984, Environmental science & technology.

[3]  William Lehr,et al.  Revisions of the ADIOS oil spill model , 2002, Environ. Model. Softw..

[4]  J. Fay.  The Spread of Oil Slicks on a Calm Sea , 1969 .

[5]  S. Venkatesh.  The oil spill behaviour model of the Canadian atmospheric environment service Part I: Theory and model evaluation , 1988 .

[6]  Effects.  Oil in the Sea III: Inputs, Fates, and Effects , 2003 .

[7]  Pavlo Tkalich,et al.  ACCURATE SIMULATION OF OIL SLICKS , 2001 .

[8]  Poojitha D. Yapa,et al.  OIL SLICK TRANSPORT IN RIVERS , 1988 .

[9]  Roger C. Prince,et al.  A protocol for assessing the effectiveness of oil spill dispersants in stimulating the biodegradation of oil , 2013, Environmental Science and Pollution Research.

[10]  Kenneth Lee,et al.  Oil Spill Response: A Global Perspective , 2008 .

[11]  G. Christodoulou,et al.  RISK ASSESSMENT OF OIL SPILL ACCIDENTS , 2014 .

[12]  C. E. Sweeney,et al.  Natural dispersion of oil , 1988 .

[13]  Mohsen Soltanpour,et al.  Numerical Modeling of Oil Slick Spread in the Persian Gulf , 2013 .

[14]  J. Fay.  Physical Processes in the Spread of Oil on a Water Surface , 1971 .

[15]  M. Fingas,et al.  Modeling Oil and Petroleum Evaporation , 2013 .

[16]  J. Wardley-Smith,et al.  Fate and weathering of petroleum spills in the marine environment , 1983 .

[17]  Gerard A.L. Delvigne,et al.  NATURAL DISPERSION OF OIL BY DIFFERENT SOURCES OF TURBULENCE , 1993 .

[18]  Lucjan Gucma,et al.  M/t “Baltic Carrier” accident. The reconstruction of oil spill with PISCES II simulator application , 2013 .

[19]  H. M. Cekirge,et al.  A new technique to estimate initial spill size using a modified fay-type spreading formula , 1984 .