A Fuzzy-AHP Methodology for Planning the Risk Management of Natural Hazards in Surface Mining Projects

Surface mining projects are vulnerable to natural hazards (earthquakes, floods, soil instabilities, and epidemic crises) which constitute the primary source of risks which affect the mining operations. In the framework of sustainable planning and development of such projects, the investigation of risk impacts is essential for taking the appropriate preventive measures before disastrous events appear in a mine. This paper proposes a methodology for the risk assessment of natural hazards in surface mining projects using the triangular Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) for the determination of the probability of risk occurrence, combined with the Expected Value (EV) function, the Monte Carlo simulation, and the Program Evaluation Review Technique PERT method for making predictions of cost and time overruns. A case study of a hazardous event with impacts in the operations of a surface mine demonstrates the methodology as a flexible and low-cost tool for mining executives. This tool is useful in the planning stage of pre-disaster management projects in the mineral industry, considering mine sustainability views. The research work also investigates critical technical and economic aspects.

[1]  Klaus Thoeni,et al.  Qualitative evolving rockfall hazard assessment for highwalls , 2017 .

[2]  DO Quanghung,et al.  Trapezoidal Fuzzy AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Approaches for Evaluating Academic Library Service , 2015 .

[3]  Ying-Hsiu Chen,et al.  Strategic decisions using the fuzzy PROMETHEE for IS outsourcing , 2011, Expert Syst. Appl..

[4]  J. Phillips,et al.  Climate change and surface mining: A review of environment-human interactions & their spatial dynamics , 2016 .

[5]  P. Vincke,et al.  Note-A Preference Ranking Organisation Method: The PROMETHEE Method for Multiple Criteria Decision-Making , 1985 .

[6]  Shih-Wei Chou,et al.  The implementation factors that influence the ERP (enterprise resource planning) benefits , 2008, Decis. Support Syst..

[7]  Joseph H. M. Tah,et al.  A proposal for construction project risk assessment using fuzzy logic , 2000 .

[8]  U. Ozbay,et al.  Investigating the effect of earthquakes on open pit mine slopes , 2017 .

[9]  T. Chuman.  Restoration Practices Used on Post Mining Sites and Industrial Deposits in the Czech Republic with an Example of Natural Restoration of Granodiorite Quarries and Spoil Heaps , 2015 .

[10]  Michael Galetakis,et al.  A spatial decision support system for the optimal environmental reclamation of open-pit coal mines in Greece , 2009 .

[11]  Francisco Rodrigues Lima Junior,et al.  A comparison between Fuzzy AHP and Fuzzy TOPSIS methods to supplier selection , 2014, Appl. Soft Comput..

[12]  Jong-Hoon Oh,et al.  New risk assessment methodology for coal mine excavated slopes , 2018, International Journal of Mining Science and Technology.

[13]  Yaşar Kasap,et al.  Risk assessment of occupational groups working in open pit mining: Analytic Hierarchy Process , 2017, Journal of Sustainable Mining.

[14]  Vishal Gupta,et al.  Comparative Performance of Contradictory and Non-Contradictory Judgement Matrices in AHP Under Qualitative and Quantitative Metrics , 2018, Int. J. Decis. Support Syst. Technol..

[15]  Michael Bründl,et al.  The risk concept and its application in natural hazard risk management in Switzerland , 2009 .

[16]  Siamak Haji Yakhchali,et al.  Handling equipment Selection in open pit mines by using an integrated model based on group decision making , 2012 .

[18]  Bernard Roy,et al.  Classement et choix en présence de points de vue multiples , 1968 .

[19]  Tiago Martins Pereira,et al.  Quantitative hazard assessment system (Has-Q) for open pit mine slopes , 2019, International Journal of Mining Science and Technology.

[20]  C. Musingwini,et al.  A survey of applications of multicriteria decision analysis methods in mine planning and related case studies. , 2016 .

[21]  Claudia Rivera Domínguez,et al.  Analysis and evaluation of risks in underground mining using the decision matrix risk-assessment (DMRA) technique, in Guanajuato, Mexico , 2019, Journal of Sustainable Mining.

[22]  Sarbast Moslem,et al.  Sustainable Urban Transport Development by Applying a Fuzzy-AHP Model: A Case Study from Mersin, Turkey , 2019, Urban Science.

[23]  Weimin Cheng,et al.  Human factors analysis of major coal mine accidents in China based on the HFACS-CM model and AHP method , 2018, International Journal of Industrial Ergonomics.

[24]  Dijana Oreški,et al.  Strategy development by using SWOT - AHP , 2012 .

[25]  Wilhelm Knabe.  Methods and Results of Strip-Mine Reclamation in Germany , 1964 .

[27]  Michael Galetakis,et al.  Public acceptance of surface mining projects and the determination of the marginal environmental cost , 2012 .

[28]  D. Chang.  Applications of the extent analysis method on fuzzy AHP , 1996 .

[29]  T. Baumgartl,et al.  A practical testing approach to predict the geochemical hazards of in-pit coal mine tailings and rejects , 2017 .

[30]  Evangelos Triantaphyllou,et al.  Multi-Criteria Decision Making: An Operations Research Approach , 1998 .

[31]  Gwo-Hshiung Tzeng,et al.  Compromise solution by MCDM methods: A comparative analysis of VIKOR and TOPSIS , 2004, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[32]  L. Goddard,et al.  Operations Research (OR) , 2007 .

[33]  C. Kuenzer,et al.  Remote sensing of coal fires in India: A review , 2018, Earth-Science Reviews.

[34]  J. Buckley,et al.  Fuzzy hierarchical analysis , 1999, FUZZ-IEEE'99. 1999 IEEE International Fuzzy Systems. Conference Proceedings (Cat. No.99CH36315).

[35]  A. Lemly.  Environmental hazard assessment of Benga Mining’s proposed Grassy Mountain Coal Project , 2019, Environmental Science & Policy.

[36]  Ming Li,et al.  Risk assessment of floor water inrush in coal mines based on secondary fuzzy comprehensive evaluation , 2012 .

[37]  Young Hoon Kwak,et al.  Analyzing project management research: Perspectives from top management journals , 2009 .

[38]  Kamal M. Al‐Subhi Al‐Harbi,et al.  Application of the AHP in project management , 2001 .

[39]  Christos Roumpos,et al.  A Multi-Criteria Approach for the Evaluation of Low Risk Restoration Projects in Continuous Surface Lignite Mines , 2020, Energies.

[40]  Prasanta Kumar Dey,et al.  Project risk management using multiple criteria decision-making technique and decision tree analysis: a case study of Indian oil refinery , 2012 .

[41]  K. Govindan,et al.  A fuzzy multi criteria approach for measuring sustainability performance of a supplier based on triple bottom line approach , 2013 .

[42]  B. Wisner,et al.  Taking the naturalness out of natural disasters , 1976, Nature.

[43]  Prasanta Kumar Dey,et al.  Project risk management: a combined analytic hierarchy process and decision tree approach , 2002 .

[44]  Tun Lin Moe,et al.  An integrated approach to natural disaster management , 2006 .

[45]  M. Dulaimi,et al.  Risk management framework for construction projects in developing countries , 2004 .

[46]  H. M. Anawar.  Impact of climate change on acid mine drainage generation and contaminant transport in water ecosystems of semi-arid and arid mining areas , 2013 .

[47]  Z. Kasztelewicz.  Approaches to Post-Mining Land Reclamation in Polish Open-Cast Lignite Mining , 2014 .

[48]  A M Donoghue,et al.  Occupational health hazards in mining: an overview. , 2004, Occupational medicine.

[49]  Chen-Tung Chen,et al.  Extensions of the TOPSIS for group decision-making under fuzzy environment , 2000, Fuzzy Sets Syst..

[50]  Patrick T. Hester,et al.  An Analysis of Multi-Criteria Decision Making Methods , 2013 .