Inter-State Dynamics of Invention Activities, 1930-2000 ¤

We study the dynamics of the cross-section distribution of patents per capita for the 48 continental US states from 1930 to 2000 using a discrete-state Markov chain. We test for and find evidence in favor of the (knowledge) convergence hypothesis. The distribution of patents is converging to a limiting distribution that is significantly more concentrated than its initial distribution. States in the extreme are more mobile than states in the middle of the cross-sectional distribution and are likely to move to the middle. However, the rate of convergence to the limiting distribution is 'slow'. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

[1]  S. J. Prais,et al.  Measuring Social Mobility , 1955 .

[2]  Panu Poutvaara,et al.  Citizens Should Vote on Secession , 2004 .

[3]  Jacob Schmookler,et al.  Invention and Economic Growth , 1967 .

[4]  M. Caniels.  Knowledge Spillovers and Economic Growth , 2000 .

[5]  D. Quah.  Galton's Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis (Now published in Scandinavian Journal of Economics 95 (4), 1993, pp.427-443.) , 1993 .

[6]  M. Feldman,et al.  R&D spillovers and the ge-ography of innovation and production , 1996 .

[7]  L. Devroye.  Non-Uniform Random Variate Generation , 1986 .

[8]  D. Champernowne.  A Model of Income Distribution , 1953 .

[9]  Zvi Griliches,et al.  Patents and R&D: is There a Lag? , 1984 .

[10]  Maryann P. Feldman.  The geography of innovation , 1994 .

[11]  Josh Lerner,et al.  Stronger Protection or Technological Revolution: What is Behind the Recent Surge in Patenting? , 1997 .

[12]  Manuel Trajtenberg,et al.  Patents, Citations, and Innovations: A Window on the Knowledge Economy , 2002 .

[13]  Daniel K. N. Johnson,et al.  How the West Has Won: Regional and Industrial Inversion in U.S. Patent Activity , 2002 .

[14]  S. Durlauf,et al.  Interpreting Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis , 1994 .

[15]  J. Geweke,et al.  Exact Inference for Continuous Time Markov Chain Models , 1986 .

[16]  Danny Quah,et al.  Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth , 1993 .

[17]  Paul A. Johnson,et al.  A nonparametric analysis of income convergence across the US states , 2000 .

[18]  A. Gelfand,et al.  Bayesian Model Choice: Asymptotics and Exact Calculations , 1994 .

[19]  Kenneth L. Sokoloff,et al.  Inventive Activity in Early Industrial America: Evidence From Patent Records, 1790–1846 , 1988, The Journal of Economic History.

[20]  Z. Griliches,et al.  Patents and R and D: Is There a Lag? , 1986 .

[21]  Gerald A. Carlino,et al.  Are U.S. regional incomes converging?:A time series analysis , 1993 .

[22]  A. Jaffe.  Real Effects of Academic Research , 1989 .

[23]  Luis Suarez-Villa,et al.  Invention and the rise of technocapitalism , 2000 .

[24]  M. Wohar,et al.  Technological convergence among US regions and states , 2004 .

[25]  Attila Varga,et al.  Time-Space Patterns of US Innovation: Stability or Change? , 1999 .

[26]  Catherine Y. Co.  Evolution of the Geography of Innovation: Evidence from Patent Data , 2002 .

[27]  Daniel K. N. Johnson,et al.  Time In Purgatory: Examining the Grant Lag for U.S. Patent Applications , 2004 .

[28]  A. Shorrocks,et al.  The Measurement of Mobility , 1978 .