Silencing Political Opinions: An Assessment of the Influence of Geopolitical Contexts in Colombia

One of the most understudied aspects of the spiral of silence theory is the influence on opinion expression of different social structures anchored in geopolitical units, such as cities or states. This study evaluates political opinion expression after an election by relying on national survey data collected in Colombia (Latin America) and using multilevel analytic techniques to assess geopolitical and individual contexts of influence. Results provide evidence that a disagreeable national context—an election outcome contrary to one’s preference—matters in explaining citizens’ political expression. In addition, individual-level variables in the form of self-censorship were studied. Rather than an individual’s level of self-censorship contributing to expression inhibition, it appears that aggregate city levels of self-censorship affect the likelihood of an individual expressing his or her opinion after a presidential election.

[1]  Richard B. Darlington,et al.  Problems with residual analysis , 2001, Animal Behaviour.

[2]  M. Caldwell,et al.  Public opinion and the communication of consent , 1996 .

[3]  Ming Wang,et al.  Ambivalence Reduction and Polarization in the Campaign Information Environment , 2013, Commun. Res..

[4]  J. David Kennamer,et al.  Self-Serving Biases in Perceiving the Opinions of Others , 1990 .

[5]  Stephen D. Perry,et al.  Inhibiting Speech through Exemplar Distribution: Can We Predict a Spiral of Silence? , 2000 .

[6]  D. Hofmann,et al.  The Structure and Function of Collective Constructs: Implications for Multilevel Research and Theory Development , 1999 .

[7]  Stephen Weymouth,et al.  National Competitiveness in Comparative Perspective: Evidence from Latin America , 2011, Latin American Politics and Society.

[8]  R. Darrell Bock,et al.  Multilevel analysis of educational data , 1989 .

[9]  Huiping Huang,et al.  A Cross-Cultural Test of the Spiral of Silence , 2005 .

[10]  Norman Miller,et al.  Ten years of research on the false-consensus effect: an empirical and theoretical review , 1987 .

[11]  R. Huckfeldt,et al.  Citizens, Politics and Social Communication: Information and Influence in an Election Campaign , 1995 .

[12]  M. Shamir,et al.  What were the Elections about, and Why We Should Ask about it in Election Surveys , 2008 .

[13]  William P. Eveland,et al.  The Role of Conversation in Developing Accurate Political Perceptions: A Multilevel Social Network Approach , 2013 .

[14]  Kurt Neuwirth,et al.  Peer and Social Influence on Opinion Expression , 2004, Commun. Res..

[15]  Lindsay H. Hoffman,et al.  Media and Perceptions of Reality , 2013 .

[16]  Joel R. Levin,et al.  New developments in pairwise multiple comparisons : some powerful and practicable procedures , 1991 .

[17]  G. A. Marcoulides.  Multilevel Analysis Techniques and Applications , 2002 .

[18]  Robert J. Mislevy,et al.  A HIERARCHICAL ITEM RESPONSE MODEL FOR EDUCATIONAL TESTING , 1989 .

[19]  Lindsay H. Hoffman.  When the World Outside Gets Inside Your Head , 2013, Commun. Res..

[20]  Heather Woltman,et al.  An introduction to hierarchical linear modeling , 2012 .

[21]  Vincent Price,et al.  Opinion Spirals, Silent and Otherwise , 1990 .

[22]  Tom A. B. Snijders,et al.  Multilevel Analysis , 2011, International Encyclopedia of Statistical Science.

[23]  Jack M. McLeod,et al.  Public Opinion du Jour: An Examination of the Spiral of Silence , 1984 .

[24]  Dominic L. Lasorsa,et al.  Political Outspokenness: Factors Working against the Spiral of Silence , 1991 .

[25]  Jaeho Cho,et al.  Political Ads and Citizen Communication , 2008, Commun. Res..

[26]  G. Seijts,et al.  The development of collective efficacy in teams: a multilevel and longitudinal perspective. , 2007, The Journal of applied psychology.

[27]  Benjamin H. Detenber,et al.  A Cross-cultural Test of the Spiral of Silence Theory in Singapore and the United States1 , 2004 .

[28]  Benjamin H. Detenber,et al.  Individual‐level Predictors of Public Outspokenness: A Test of the Spiral of Silence Theory in Singapore , 2002 .

[29]  Christian Schemer,et al.  Political Minority Opinions A Spiral of Silence for Some : Attitude Certainty and the Expression of , 2010 .

[30]  Irma B. Pérez,et al.  Comunicación y participación política , 2009 .

[31]  Patricia Moy,et al.  TWENTY-FIVE YEARS OF THE SPIRAL OF SILENCE: A CONCEPTUAL REVIEW AND EMPIRICAL OUTLOOK , 2000 .

[32]  James Shanahan,et al.  Willingness to Self-Censor: A Construct and Measurement Tool for Public Opinion Research , 2005 .

[33]  Shirley S. Ho,et al.  Social-Psychological Influences on Opinion Expression in Face-to-Face and Computer-Mediated Communication , 2008, Commun. Res..

[34]  Jack M. McLeod,et al.  Getting Levels Across and Crossing Levels , 1989 .

[35]  James Shanahan,et al.  Talking on ‘Sunshine in North Korea’: A Test of the Spiral of Silence as a Theory of Powerful Mass Media , 2004 .

[36]  William P. Eveland.  The Impact of News and Entertainment Media on Perceptions of Social Reality , 2002 .

[37]  N. Castree.  Differential geographies: place, indigenous rights and 'local' resources , 2004 .

[38]  E. Noelle-Neumann.  The Spiral of Silence A Theory of Public Opinion , 1974 .

[39]  Diana C. Mutz.  Hearing the Other Side: Deliberative versus Participatory Democracy , 2006 .

[40]  M. Baldassare,et al.  Measures of Attitude Strength as Predictors of Willingness to Speak to the Media , 1996 .

[41]  Andrew F. Hayes,et al.  Exploring the Forms of Self‐Censorship: On the Spiral of Silence and the Use of Opinion Expression Avoidance Strategies , 2007 .

[42]  Diana C. Mutz.  Impersonal Influence: How Perceptions of Mass Collectives Affect Political Attitudes , 1998 .

[43]  Raymond W. Preiss,et al.  The Spiral of Silence: A Meta-Analysis and Its Impact , 2006 .

[44]  S. Kozlowski,et al.  From Micro to Meso: Critical Steps in Conceptualizing and Conducting Multilevel Research , 2000 .

[45]  Kurt Neuwirth,et al.  Perceptions of Opinion “Climates” and Willingness to Discuss the Issue of Abortion , 1990 .

[46]  Y. Connie Yuan,et al.  Expertise Directory Development, Shared Task Interdependence, and Strength of Communication Network Ties as Multilevel Predictors of Expertise Exchange in Transactive Memory Work Groups , 2010, Commun. Res..

[47]  I. Ajzen.  The theory of planned behavior , 1991 .

[48]  James Shanahan,et al.  VALIDATING THE WILLINGNESS TO SELF-CENSOR SCALE: INDIVIDUAL DIFFERENCES IN THE EFFECT OF THE CLIMATE OF OPINION ON OPINION EXPRESSION , 2005 .

[49]  J. Hottois.  The Spiral of Silence: Public Opinion—Our Social Skin . By Noelle-Neumann Elisabeth. (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1984. Pp. xi + 184. $20.00.) , 1985, American Political Science Review.

[50]  Andrew F. Hayes,et al.  Validating the Willingness to Self-Censor Scale II: Inhibition of Opinion Expression in a Conversational Setting , 2010 .

[51]  D. Hofmann.  Issues in Multilevel Research: Theory Development, Measurement, and Analysis , 2008 .

[52]  J. Holmes,et al.  Party System Decline in Colombia: A Subnational Examination of Presidential and Senate Elections from 1994 to 2006 , 2012 .

[53]  Hernando Rojas,et al.  Mobilizers Mobilized: Information, Expression, Mobilization and Participation in the Digital Age , 2009, J. Comput. Mediat. Commun..

[54]  Hyo-Sook Kim,et al.  A Multilevel Study of Antecedents and a Mediator of Employee—Organization Relationships , 2007 .

[55]  James M. Fields,et al.  Public Beliefs About the Beliefs of the Public , 1976 .

[56]  James C. McCroskey,et al.  Validity of the PRCA as an index of oral communication apprehension , 1978 .

[57]  Hernando Rojas,et al.  NET Being Early on the Curve : Online Practices and Expressive Political Participation , 2007 .

[58]  Carroll J. Glynn,et al.  REFERENCE GROUPS, OPINION INTENSITY, AND PUBLIC OPINION EXPRESSION , 1997 .

[59]  Blake M. McKimmie,et al.  On being loud and proud: non-conformity and counter-conformity to group norms. , 2003, The British journal of social psychology.

[60]  N. Weinstein.  Unrealistic optimism about future life events , 1980 .

[61]  Lars Willnat,et al.  MASS MEDIA AND POLITICAL OUTSPOKENNESS IN HONG KONG: LINKING THE THIRD-PERSON EFFECT AND THE SPIRAL OF SILENCE , 1996 .

[62]  S. Pile,et al.  Place and the Politics of Identity , 2004 .

[63]  Kurt Neuwirth,et al.  TESTING THE SPIRAL OF SILENCE MODEL: THE CASE OF MEXICO , 2000 .

[64]  Seong-Jae Min,et al.  Exemplifying a Dispositional Approach to Cross-Cultural Spiral of Silence Research: Fear of Social Isolation and the Inclination to Self-Censor , 2012 .

[65]  Vincent Price,et al.  Opinion Spirals, Silent and Otherwise: Applying Small-Group Research to Public Opinion Phenomena (Review Essay). , 1990 .

[66]  Jack M. McLeod,et al.  Multilevel Analysis in Mass Communication Research , 1991 .

[67]  Kurt Neuwirth,et al.  The Spiral of Silence and Fear of Isolation , 2007 .

[68]  Magdalena Wojcieszak,et al.  Correlates of Party, Ideology and Issue Based Extremity in an era of Egocentric Publics , 2011 .

[69]  Carolyn A. Lin,et al.  Predicting the spiral of silence on a controversial public issue , 1997 .

[70]  Carroll J. Glynn,et al.  Perceived Support for One's Opinions and Willingness to Speak Out: A Meta-Analysis of Survey Studies on the 'Spiral of Silence' , 1997 .

[71]  Matthew S. Winters,et al.  The Link Between Voting and Life Satisfaction in Latin America , 2011, Latin American Politics and Society.

[72]  Diana Ojeda.  War and Tourism: The Banal Geographies of Security in Colombia's “Retaking” , 2013 .

[73]  Gearóid Ó. Tuathail.  Critical geopolitics : the politics of writing global space , 1998 .