论文信息 - Impact of a climate change on avalanche hazard

Impact of a climate change on avalanche hazard

Abstract The SAFRAN/Crocus/MÉPRA software is used to assess the climatology of the avalanche hazard and its sensitivity to climate change. A natural avalanche-hazard index based on MEPRA analysis is defined and validated against natural avalanche observations (triggered avalanches are not taken into account). A 15 year climatology then allows a comparison of avalanche hazard in the different French massifs. Finally a simple climate scenario (with a general increase of precipitation and temperature) shows that avalanche hazard may decrease slightly in winter (mainly February) and more significantly in May/June. The relative proportion of wet-snow avalanches increases.

[1] E. Martin,et al. A computer-based system simulating snowpack structures as a tool for regional avalanche forecasting , 1999, Journal of Glaciology.

[2] A. Rango,et al. Climate change effects on the snowmelt hydrology of western North American mountain basins , 1990 .

[3] P. Foehn. Schnee und Lawinen , 1990 .

[4] E. Martin,et al. Downscaling of general circulation model outputs: simulation of the snow climatology of the French Alps and sensitivity to climate change , 1996 .

[5] B. Leprettre,et al. First results from a pre-operational system for automatic detection and recognition of seismic signals associated with avalanches , 1996, Journal of Glaciology.

[6] P. M. Fôhn. The stability index and various triggering mechanisms , 1987 .