3.3.3 A novel modeling approach enhancing classic scenario generation techniques

Scenario methods are deployed in strategic planning to generate alternative environments as a mean to deal with uncertainties imposed by factors, which are hard to foresee or control. Current mainstream methodological approaches produce descriptive, steady-state scenarios with qualitative outcomes. For description of complex and unsteady environments they show deficiencies to reproduce dynamic behavior of systems and fall short to highlight scenarios of higher-than-average quality and value, restraining the efficiency to address uncertainty. The paper presents an approach to comply with this need using established scenario techniques in an integrated way and incorporating a new technique to generate scenarios stepwise into the future. It utilizes procedures to cluster relevant scenarios and quantifies scenario quality with relevant indicators. Results of a sample processes demonstrate that the approach behaves as complex system. Scenarios produced obtain a desired level of consistency and homogeneity within clusters while they establish high dissimilarity amongst one another. The achieved process quality contributes to an improved selection and assessment of relevant scenarios which form sound foundations for alternative strategy mappings and, thus, the understanding and treatment of system uncertainties.