Modelling of human alarm handling response times: a case study of the Ladbroke Grove rail accident in the UK

The purpose of the paper was to address the timeliness of the signaller's intervention in the Ladbroke Grove rail incident in the UK, as well as to consider the utility of human performance time modelling more generally. Human performance response time modelling is a critical area for Human Factors and Ergonomics research. This research applied two approaches to the same problem to see if they arrived at the same conclusion. The first modelling approach used the alarm initiated activity (AIA) model. This approach is useful for indicating general response times in emergency events, but it cannot comment in detail on any specific case. The second modelling approach employed a multi-modal critical path analysis (CPA) technique. The advantage of the latter approach is that it can be used to model a specific incident on the basis of the known factors from the accident inquiry. The results show that the AIA model produced an estimated response time of 17 s, whereas the CPA model produced an estimated response time of 19 s. This compares with the actual response time of the signaller of 18 s. The response time data from both approaches are concordant and suggest that the signaller's response time in the Ladbroke Grove rail accident was reasonable. This research has application to the modelling of human responses to emergency events in all domains. Rather than the forensic reconstruction approach used in this paper, the models could be used in a predictive manner to anticipate how long human operators of safety-critical systems might take to respond in emergency scenarios.

[1]  Gary M. Olson,et al.  The growth of cognitive modeling in human-computer interaction since GOMS , 1990 .

[2]  N A Stanton,et al.  Distributed situation awareness in dynamic systems: theoretical development and application of an ergonomics methodology , 2006, Ergonomics.

[3]  J P Bliss,et al.  Human probability matching behaviour in response to alarms of varying reliability. , 1995, Ergonomics.

[4]  Roberta Calderwood,et al.  Critical decision method for eliciting knowledge , 1989, IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern..

[5]  Bernard Riera,et al.  Basic Cognitive Principles Applied to the Design of Advanced Supervisory Systems for Process Control , 2003 .

[6]  Allen Newell,et al.  The psychology of human-computer interaction , 1983 .

[7]  Chris Baber,et al.  Using critical path analysis to model multimodal human-computer interaction , 2001, Int. J. Hum. Comput. Stud..

[8]  N Moray,et al.  Fault management in process control: eye movements and action. , 1989, Ergonomics.

[9]  H Harmen Kragt.  A COMPARATIVE SIMULATION STUDY OF ANNUNCIATOR SYSTEMS , 1984 .

[10]  K. G. Lockyer,et al.  Critical Path Analysis and Other Project Network Techniques , 1984 .

[11]  Michael E. Atwood,et al.  Project Ernestine: Validating a GOMS Analysis for Predicting and Explaining Real-World Task Performance , 1993, Hum. Comput. Interact..

[12]  J. Shaoul.  Human Error , 1973, Nature.

[13]  S T Shorrock,et al.  AN EVALUATION OF AN ALARM SYSTEM FOR AN ATC CENTRE. IN: ENGINEERING PSYCHOLOGY AND COGNITIVE ERGONOMICS. AEROSPACE AND TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS , 2001 .

[14]  Guy H. Walker,et al.  Event analysis of systemic teamwork (EAST): a novel integration of ergonomics methods to analyse C4i activity , 2006, Ergonomics.

[15]  Gavriel Salvendy,et al.  Handbook of Human Factors and Ergonomics , 2005 .

[16]  John A. Swets,et al.  System operator response to warnings of danger: A laboratory investigation of the effects of the predictive value of a warning on human response time. , 1995 .

[17]  James P. Bliss.  Alarm Reaction Patterns by Pilots as a Function of Reaction Modality , 1997 .

[18]  Gary M. Olson,et al.  The Growth of Cognitive Modeling in Human-Computer Interaction Since GOMS , 1990, Hum. Comput. Interact..

[19]  Nicholas J Ward,et al.  A systems analysis of the Ladbroke Grove rail crash. , 2005, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[20]  E. C. Marshall,et al.  An experiment to support the design of VDU-based alarm lists for power plant operators , 1995 .

[21]  Neville A. Stanton,et al.  The ergonomics of command and control , 2006 .

[22]  Neville A. Stanton,et al.  Alarm initiated activities: matching formats to tasks , 1998 .

[23]  E M Roth,et al.  Cognitive simulation as a tool for cognitive task analysis. , 1992, Ergonomics.

[24]  Chris Baber,et al.  Designing habitable dialogues for speech-based interaction with computers , 2001, Int. J. Hum. Comput. Stud..

[25]  Robert R. Tyler.  Response management timed to real-world alerts , 1997 .

[26]  Neville A. Stanton,et al.  Alarm-initiated activities: an analysis of alarm handlingby operators using text-based alarm systems in supervisory control systems , 1995 .

[27]  Sidney Dekker,et al.  PILOT PERFORMANCE DURING MULTIPLE FAILURES: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF DIFFERENT WARNING SYSTEMS , 2000 .

[28]  R Graham,et al.  Use of auditory icons as emergency warnings: evaluation within a vehicle collision avoidance application. , 1999, Ergonomics.

[29]  Bonnie E. John,et al.  Toward an Engineering Model of Stimulus-Response Compatibility , 1990 .

[30]  Neville A. Stanton,et al.  Comparing speech versus text displays for alarm handling , 1997 .

[31]  Bonnie E. John.  Extensions of GOMS analyses to expert performance requiring perception of dynamic visual and auditory information , 1990, CHI '90.

[32]  Theresa Clarke,et al.  A naturalistic study of railway controllers , 2006, Ergonomics.

[33]  Anna Trujillo.  Response times in correcting non-normal system events when collocating status, alerts and procedures, and controls , 2001 .

[34]  Neville A. Stanton,et al.  Human Factors in Auditory Warnings , 1999 .

[35]  Wayne D. Gray,et al.  Milliseconds Matter: an Introduction to Microstrategies and to Their Use in Describing and Predicting Interactive Behavior Milliseconds Matter: an Introduction to Microstrategies and to Their Use in Describing and Predicting Interactive Behavior , 2022 .

[36]  Richard Schweickert,et al.  A critical path generalization of the additive factor method: Analysis of a stroop task , 1978 .

[37]  Pamela S. Tsang,et al.  Methodological and Theoretical Concerns in Multitask Performance: A Critique of Boles, Bursk, Phillips, and Perdelwitz , 2007, Hum. Factors.