Migration and Incomes in Source Communities: A New Economics of Migration Perspective from China*

The objective of this paper is to understand the effects of China’s migration on source communities and to discuss their policy implications. We draw from New Economics of Labor Migration (NELM) theory to understand how migration and migrant remittances can relax or tighten market constraints in China’s rural economy. Using simultaneous-equation econometric techniques and household survey data from China, we estimate net, sectorspecific effects of migration on rural household income, focusing on farm production and self-employment. Our econometric findings indicate that the loss of labor to migration has a negative effect on household cropping income in source areas. However, we provide evidence that remittances sent home by migrants positively compensate for this lost-labor effect, contributing to household incomes directly and indirectly by stimulating crop and possibly self-employment production. This finding offers evidence in support of the NELM hypothesis that remittances loosen constraints on production in the imperfect-market environments characterizing rural areas in less developed countries. Taking into account both the multiple effects of migration and the change in household size, participating in migration increases household per-capita income between 14 and 30 percent. Migration and Incomes in Source Communities: A New Economics of Migration Perspective from China China is experiencing the largest peacetime flow of labor out of agriculture ever witnessed in world history (Solinger, 1999; Rozelle et al., 1999). Despite the rapid expansion of labor migration, China’s work force is still disproportionately employed in agriculture compared to other countries at similar levels of per-capita GDP (Taylor and Martin, 2001). Hence, as China’s economy continues to expand, the flow of labor to urban areas will continue and even accelerate (Johnson, 1999). The massive flow of labor away from farms has intensified research interest in China’s migration in recent years. However, as in the broader literature on migration in less developed countries, most recent studies on China’s migration have focused on determining the size and composition of the labor flow, macroeconomic implications of increased migration, and the effects of migration on urban areas (Zhao, 1999; Yang, 1999; 1997). Less emphasis has been placed on researching the effects of migration on the rural communities that migrants leave, even though evidence shows that the rural household in the village of origin is typically the central concern of all those involved in migration– both those who leave and those who stay behind (exceptions include Wang and Zuo, 1999; Bai, 2001). Moreover, the recent increase in migration has left policy makers particularly concerned regarding the way source communities will be affected (MOA, 1999). They are concerned that as labor flows away from farms, food production and crop income will decline, potentially threatening China’s food security. Furthermore, policy makers are concerned about the increasing gap between urban and rural household incomes. If migration exacerbates this gap, some fear that as it grows rural residents eventually will flood cities ill-equipped to absorb them. Others fear that discontent over a rising urban-rural income gap could even spill over into political unrest (Yang, 1999). Because China’s markets and other modern economic institutions are still relatively undeveloped, migration may play a pivotal role in creating or overcoming constraints caused by the lack of well-functioning markets and/or institutions (Knight and Song, 1999; Benjamin and Brandt, 2000). The “new economics of labor migration” (NELM) literature analyzes migration as a household decision rather than as an individual decision (Stark, 1991). The NELM hypothesizes that rural households facing imperfect market environments decide