What is the danger of the anomaly zone for empirical phylogenetics?

The increasing number of observations of gene trees with discordant topologies in phylogenetic studies has raised awareness about the problems of incongruence between species trees and gene trees. Moreover, theoretical treatments focusing on the impact of coalescent variance on phylogenetic study have also identified situations where the most probable gene trees are ones that do not match the underlying species tree (i.e., anomalous gene trees [AGTs]). However, although the theoretical proof of the existence of AGTs is alarming, the actual risk that AGTs pose to empirical phylogenetic study is far from clear. Establishing the conditions (i.e., the branch lengths in a species tree) for which AGTs are possible does not address the critical issue of how prevalent they might be. Furthermore, theoretical characterization of the species trees for which AGTs may pose a problem (i.e., the anomaly zone or the species histories for which AGTs are theoretically possible) is based on consideration of just one source of variance that contributes to species tree and gene tree discord-gene lineage coalescence. Yet, empirical data contain another important stochastic component-mutational variance. Estimated gene trees will differ from the underlying gene trees (i.e., the actual genealogy) because of the random process of mutation. Here, we take a simulation approach to investigate the prevalence of AGTs, among estimated gene trees, thereby characterizing the boundaries of the anomaly zone taking into account both coalescent and mutational variances. We also determine the frequency of realized AGTs, which is critical to putting the theoretical work on AGTs into a realistic biological context. Two salient results emerge from this investigation. First, our results show that mutational variance can indeed expand the parameter space (i.e., the relative branch lengths in a species tree) where AGTs might be observed in empirical data. By exploring the underlying cause for the expanded anomaly zone, we identify aspects of empirical data relevant to avoiding the problems that AGTs pose for species tree inference from multilocus data. Second, for the empirical species histories where AGTs are possible, unresolved trees-not AGTs-predominate the pool of estimated gene trees. This result suggests that the risk of AGTs, while they exist in theory, may rarely be realized in practice. By considering the biological realities of both mutational and coalescent variances, the study has refined, and redefined, what the actual challenges are for empirical phylogenetic study of recently diverged taxa that have speciated rapidly-AGTs themselves are unlikely to pose a significant danger to empirical phylogenetic study.