Uncertainty assessment for ship maneuvering mathematical model

An 8 degrees of freedom (DoF) ship maneuvering motion model for a twin-propeller twin-rudder high-speed hull form is developed from captive model experiment data available from literatures. The degrees of freedom considered are surge, sway, yaw, roll, rudder rate and propeller rate. Besides maneuvering motion model, variation of port/starboard propeller thrust and torque and port/starboard rudder normal force and rudder torque are also included in the model. An uncertainty analysis computation for the mathematical model is carried out. Uncertainties in the experimental data and the polynomial curve fitting during modeling are included in the computation. It is shown that the mathematical model uncertainty is higher than the experimental uncertainty. Uncertainty is propagated to full-scale zigzag maneuver using the conventional Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. The uncertainty analysis results will be useful for further improvement of mathematical model, validation of CFD simulation results of appended hull maneuvering tests, etc. The authors have also shown the utility of asymmetric operations of the twin-propeller and twin-rudder by carrying out full-scale simulation a zigzag maneuver and showing the variation of the rudder normal force and torque.

[1]  M S Chislett,et al.  A MODEL TESTING TECHNIQUE AND METHOD OF ANALYSIS FOR THE PREDICTION OF STEERING AND MANOEUVRING QUALITIES OF SURFACE VESSELS , 1966 .

[2]  J. Hammersley,et al.  Monte Carlo Methods , 1965 .

[3]  Vishwanath Nagarajan,et al.  A Stochastic Response Surface Approach for Uncertainty Propagation in Ship Maneuvering , 2014 .

[4]  Haruzo Eda.  MANEUVERING PERFORMANCE OF HIGH-SPEED SHIPS WITH EFFECT OF ROLL MOTION , 1980 .

[5]  Kensaku Nomoto,et al.  On the Coupled Motion of Steering and Rolling of a High Speed Container Ship , 1981 .

[6]  John H. Holland,et al.  When will a Genetic Algorithm Outperform Hill Climbing , 1993, NIPS.

[7]  Seung Keon Lee,et al.  Assessment of a mathematical model for the manoeuvring motion of a twin-propeller twin-rudder ship , 2003 .

[8]  Kazuhiko Hasegawa,et al.  Manoeuvring characteristics of twin-rudder systems: rudder-hull interaction effect on the manoeuvrability of twin-rudder ships , 2011 .

[9]  Douglas C. Montgomery,et al.  Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, Third edition , 1994 .

[10]  S. Isukapalli.  UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF TRANSPORT-TRANSFORMATION MODELS , 1999 .

[11]  Frederick Stern,et al.  Uncertainty Assessment for Towing Tank Tests With Example for Surface Combatant DTMB Model 5415 , 2005 .

[12]  D. C. Handscomb,et al.  The General Nature of Monte Carlo Methods , 1964 .

[13]  H. Yoon.  Phase-averaged stereo-PIV flow field and force/moment/motion measurements for surface combatant in PMM maneuvers , 2009 .

[14]  Frederick Stern,et al.  Turn and zigzag maneuvers of a surface combatant using a URANS approach with dynamic overset grids , 2013 .

[15]  Dian-Qing Li,et al.  Stochastic response surface method for reliability analysis of rock slopes involving correlated non-normal variables , 2011 .

[16]  Hyun-Jun Kim,et al.  A Proposal on Standard Rudder Device Design Procedure by Investigation of Rudder Design Process at Major Korean Shipyards , 2012 .

[17]  Frederick Stern,et al.  Unsteady RANS method for ship motions with application to roll for a surface combatant , 2006 .

[18]  C J Rubis.  ACCELERATION AND STEADY-STATE PROPULSION DYNAMICS OF A GAS TURBINE SHIP WITH CONTROLLABLE-PITCH PROPELLER , 1972 .

[19]  Y. Kawamura,et al.  Stochastic Formulation of Structural Response of Steel Plates with Random Initial Distortions:-An Intrusive Formulation using Polynomial Chaos Expansions- , 2014 .

[20]  Michio Ueno,et al.  Circular motion tests and uncertainty analysis for ship maneuverability , 2009 .