A GEODEMOGRAPHIC MODEL FOR BUS SERVICE PLANNING AND MARKETING

A trip prediction model is developed that uses a combination of geographic, demographic, and transit service data to estimate bus ridership in northern New Jersey. When this model is combined with interactive computer graphics hardware, it becomes a powerful analytical tool for transit planning and marketing. First, a description is provided of the data bases used in the model and how they were integrated into a common file. Second, the model is described and its development is discussed. Finally, the model is used to predict potential ridership for a sample bus route in Newark, New Jersey. Potential ridership is predicted from both current demographic and service patterns, and from possible future patterns.