Crime versus Justice: Is There a Trade‐Off?*

When society is divided into two groups with different actual or perceived crime rates, maintaining a low crime rate, minimizing the total number of innocent individuals convicted of a crime, and keeping the probability of wrongly convicting an innocent individual equal across groups are incompatible social goals. This paper fully develops these trade‐offs. An empirical application of the model finds that these trade‐offs may be substantial. Specifically, we estimate that innocent black Americans would be roughly eight times more likely to be wrongly convicted of murder than innocent white Americans if society placed no value on equality when it comes to convictions. However, we estimate that eliminating inequality entirely could cost up to 1,900 lives annually because of a rise in the murder rate. Estimates reveal similar findings for gender inequality. In highlighting this serious dilemma, this paper suggests a need for awareness of costs of crime‐reduction policies.

[1]  J. Brigham,et al.  A Criminal Schema: The Role of Chronicity, Race, and Socioeconomic Status in Law Enforcement Officials' Perceptions of Others , 1996 .

[2]  R. Sah.  Social Osmosis and Patterns of Crime , 1991, Journal of Political Economy.

[3]  E. Rasmusen,et al.  Why is the Japanese Conviction Rate so High? , 2001, The Journal of Legal Studies.

[4]  E. Stark.  The Myth of Black Violence , 1993 .

[5]  B. McMorris,et al.  Fear of crime and the likelihood of victimization: a bi-ethnic comparison. , 1993, The Journal of social psychology.

[6]  Jorge J. Moré,et al.  User Guide for Minpack-1 , 1980 .

[7]  Steven D. Levitt,et al.  The Effect of Prison Population Size on Crime Rates: Evidence from Prison Overcrowding Litigation , 1995 .

[8]  J. Michels,et al.  Majority group perceptions of criminal behavior: The accuracy of race-related crime stereotypes. , 1996 .

[9]  Dilip Mookherjee,et al.  Optimal Auditing, Insurance, and Redistribution , 1989 .

[10]  C. Spohn.  The Sentencing Decisions of Black and White Judges: Expected and Unexpected Similarities , 1990 .

[11]  Michael Tonry,et al.  Malign Neglect: Race, Crime, and Punishment in America , 1995 .

[12]  T. Feddersen,et al.  Convicting the Innocent: The Inferiority of Unanimous Jury Verdicts under Strategic Voting , 1996, American Political Science Review.

[13]  R. Horowitz,et al.  Gender Bias in Juvenile Justice Handling of Seriously Crime-Involved Youths , 1991 .

[14]  Paul R. Milgrom,et al.  Good News and Bad News: Representation Theorems and Applications , 1981 .

[15]  E. Glaeser,et al.  Crime and Social Interactions , 1995 .

[16]  Gary W. Cox,et al.  A note on crime and punishment , 1994 .

[17]  R. S. Morris.  Convicting the Innocent , 1947 .

[18]  A. Farmer,et al.  Fairness concepts and the intrahousehold allocation of resources , 1995 .

[19]  Eric Bennett Rasmusen.  ``Predictable and Unpredictable Error in Tort Awards: The Effect of Plaintiff Self Selection and Signalling,'' , 1995 .

[20]  Richard Startz,et al.  Private Discrimination and Social Intervention in Competitive Labor Markets , 1983 .

[21]  A. Farmer,et al.  DISCRIMINATION, BAYESIAN UPDATING OF EMPLOYER BELIEFS, AND HUMAN CAPITAL ACCUMULATION , 1996 .

[22]  James Andreoni,et al.  Reasonable Doubt and the Optimal Magnitude of Fines: Should the Penalty Fit the Crime? , 1991 .

[23]  R. L. Young.  RACE, CONCEPTIONS OF CRIME AND JUSTICE, AND SUPPORT FOR THE DEATH-PENALTY , 1991 .

[24]  E. Phelps.  The Statistical Theory of Racism and Sexism , 1972 .

[25]  P. Wong,et al.  The effects of race on expectancies and performance attributions. , 1988 .

[26]  K. Wolpin.  A Time Series-Cross Section Analysis of International Variation in Crime and Punishment , 1980 .

[27]  Joel L. Schrag,et al.  Crime and Prejudice: The Use of Character Evidence in Criminal Trials , 1994 .

[28]  D. Aigner,et al.  Statistical Theories of Discrimination in Labor Markets , 1977 .

[29]  A. Farmer,et al.  Does jury bias matter , 1999 .