Construction simulation of high arch dams based on fuzzy Bayesian updating algorithm

Construction simulation is an effective tool to provide schedule plans for construction schedule management. The simulation parameter is the foundation of construction simulation for high arch dams. However, the updating construction simulation parameters of the commonly used Bayesian algorithm are constant and inconsistent with the construction process. Due to the lack of construction data, the construction data are not sufficient for the Bayesian updating algorithm. Thus, the construction simulation of high arch dams based on fuzzy Bayesian updating algorithm is proposed. The construction parameters for a dynamic site construction situation are collected, and the original data are fuzzed by fuzzy set theory to provide the foundation for a variety of simulation parameters during the simulation process. Moreover, with the Bayesian updating algorithm, the fuzzed simulation parameters are updated and obtained via the selection of the membership degree. Finally, the construction simulation of high arch dams is conducted based on the updated simulation parameters. A case study shows that the updated simulation parameters are more in accordance with the construction parameters in situ than the original parameters, which can provide a foundation for the change of simulation parameters during the simulation process, and the simulation results are agreed with the actual construction situation.中文概要目的针对当前高拱坝施工进度仿真研究中施工仿真参 数难以实现对现场施工状态的有效跟踪的现状, 研究施工仿真参数实时更新方法,以提高施工仿 真参数及仿真计算结果的准确度。创新点1. 通过贝叶斯更新方法,建立施工仿真参数实时 更新方法;2. 基于模糊集理论,并通过对隶属度 的取值,实现对仿真计算过程中施工仿真参数变 化的有效模拟。方法1. 通过对高拱坝施工过程的分析(图1),建立高 拱坝施工进度仿真的模型(图2 和3);2. 基于贝 叶斯更新方法,建立高拱坝施工仿真参数实时更 新方法(公式(4)~(8));3. 基于模糊集理论, 实现仿真过程中施工仿真参数实时更新;4. 将模 糊集理论与贝叶斯更新整合,建立模糊贝叶斯更 新方法,实现施工仿真参数实时更新(公式(17) 和(18));5. 将实时更新的施工仿真参数应用到 施工进度仿真中,实现施工进度的仿真分析。结论1. 采用贝叶斯更新方法,减小了施工仿真参数与 实际参数之间偏差程度;2. 采用模糊贝叶斯更新 方法,通过不断更新施工仿真参数,使得仿真计 算结果与实际施工状态更为接近。