Weather-Forecast Profitability from a Client's Viewpoint

The governing requirements in forecasting the weather for industrial operations are profitability and safety. Accuracy, though desirable, is not sufficient to guarantee utility. In order to be useful, the forecasts must be worded so that they can easily be converted into profitable business decisions. Thus, the industrial meteorologist needs not only a knowledge of the weather but also a considerable economic insight into the industrial activities and problems of his client. Special attention has to be paid to the effect of each forecast on the profitability and safety of the client's operations. In certain instances, the meteorologist may even need to recommend some routinely instituted protective action as being more profitable than actions based on his own forecasts. Approximate methods, with which the forecaster can estimate the most profitable action available to his client for a particular industrial operation, are given, and several illustrative examples are discussed. The methods are first applied...