The statistical signature of confidence is not necessarily a folded X-pattern

Confidence in perceptual choices is a degree of belief that a choice about a stimulus is correct. To identify the neural correlates of decision confidence, recent studies have widely used statistical signatures of confidence. The most widely used statistical signature is the folded X-signature, which states that the subjective probability of being correct is 0.75 when the stimulus is neutral about the choice, increases with discriminability in correct trials, and decreases with discriminability in incorrect trials. We show that the folded X-signature is limited to specific conditions. If decision makers are provided with evidence about discriminability, objective confidence follows a different statistical signature: for both correct and incorrect choices, confidence increases with discriminability. In addition, if the simulated experiment involves discrete levels of discriminability, confidence in choices about neutral stimuli is not 0.75. Overall, this means that researchers should not search for correlates of confidence by assuming the folded X-signature a priori.

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