Stability evaluation of metal mine goaf based on improved catastrophe progression method

In order to evaluate the goaf stability of metal mines effectively and scientifically,based on the improved catastrophe progression method,an integrative identification model for the stability classification of goaf was presented. Nine control factors were selected in the analysis of multi-level objective decomposition,and their relative importance were determined by analyzing measured data using principal component analysis method. According to the catastrophe theory and the fuzzy member function,the data were normalized and the catastrophic affiliated functional value was calculated,then a catastrophe progression model was obtained to classify the stability classification of goaf. 26 typical goaf cases of metal mines were collected to train and test the improved catastrophe progression model. The results showed that the identification model both effectively avoids the direct use of the "weight"concept which is difficult to determine,and objectively determines the relative importance of each layer indicators. It has excellent performance and high prediction accuracy,and can be used to evaluate the stability of metal mine goaf.