Performance analysis for subsea blind shear ram preventers subject to testing strategies

Abstract In a subsea blowout preventer system, a subsea blind shear ram preventer (BSRP) plays as a crucial safety barrier by cutting off the drill pipe and sealing the wellhead to prevent serious accidents. Testing and repairs of BSRPs are the main issues in operation and maintenance activities. It is important to assess BSRPs unavailability during proof and partial testing phases in order to ensure their safety functions. This paper presents a newly state-based approach for unavailability analysis by incorporating testing activities of BSRPs into multiphase Markov process. In the approach, states waiting for repair are taken into consideration. Analytical formulas for evaluation of time-dependent unavailability and average unavailability for BSRPs are developed. In addition, the non-periodic characteristics and effects of degradation are also taken into account in proof testing. The effects of testing errors and postponed repairs on the tendency of unavailability in partial testing phases are checked in the proposed models. Performance analyses for BSRPs configurations, scenarios and cases considered in the paper are carried out to demonstrate the application of the proposed models. Monte Carlo models for both proof and partial testing are developed and simulated. Different comparisons are performed for validation of the set of the derived formulations.

[1]  Ajit Srividya,et al.  Dynamic fault tree analysis using Monte Carlo simulation in probabilistic safety assessment , 2009, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[2]  V. Matuzas,et al.  Dynamic labelling of BDD and ZBDD for efficient non-coherent fault tree analysis , 2015, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[3]  Yunpeng Ma,et al.  Real-time reliability evaluation methodology based on dynamic Bayesian networks: A case study of a subsea pipe ram BOP system. , 2015, ISA transactions.

[4]  Yonghong Liu,et al.  Dynamic Bayesian network modeling of reliability of subsea blowout preventer stack in presence of common cause failures , 2015 .

[5]  Grzegorz Kaczor,et al.  Verification of safety integrity level with the application of Monte Carlo simulation and reliability block diagrams , 2016 .

[6]  Yu Liu,et al.  A multiphase dynamic Bayesian networks methodology for the determination of safety integrity levels , 2016, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[7]  J. I. R. Blake,et al.  Monte Carlo reliability analysis of tophat stiffened composite plate structures under out of plane loading , 2013, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[8]  Marvin Rausand,et al.  Reliability of Subsea BOP Systems , 1983 .

[9]  Daejun Chang,et al.  Risk-based determination of design pressure of LNG fuel storage tanks based on dynamic process simulation combined with Monte Carlo method , 2014, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[10]  Andrea Bondavalli,et al.  Markov Regenerative Stochastic Petri Nets to Model and Evaluate Phased Mission Systems Dependability , 2001, IEEE Trans. Computers.

[11]  Bernt J. Leira,et al.  Reliability analysis of corroding pipelines by enhanced Monte Carlo simulation , 2016 .

[12]  Jarand F Klingsheim Reliability assessment of subsea BOP shear ram preventers , 2015 .

[13]  Mary Ann Lundteigen,et al.  A DBN-Based Risk Assessment Model for Prediction and Diagnosis of Offshore Drilling Incidents , 2016, Bayesian Networks in Fault Diagnosis.

[14]  Qian Fan,et al.  Dynamic Bayesian networks based performance evaluation of subsea blowout preventers in presence of imperfect repair , 2013, Expert Syst. Appl..

[15]  N. Siu,et al.  Risk assessment for dynamic systems: An overview , 1994 .

[16]  YoungSoon Yang,et al.  Use of hazardous event frequency to evaluate safety integrity level of subsea blowout preventer , 2016 .

[17]  Yonghong Liu,et al.  Application of Petri nets to performance evaluation of subsea blowout preventer system. , 2015, ISA transactions.

[18]  Hang Li,et al.  Reliability analysis of subsea blowout preventer control systems subjected to multiple error shocks , 2012 .

[19]  Jhareswar Maiti,et al.  Risk analysis using FMEA: Fuzzy similarity value and possibility theory based approach , 2014, Expert Syst. Appl..

[20]  Brian Boswell,et al.  Application of Markov modelling and Monte Carlo simulation technique in failure probability estimation — A consideration of corrosion defects of internally corroded pipelines , 2016 .

[21]  Mary Ann Lundteigen,et al.  Risk control in the well drilling phase: BOP system reliability assessment , 2015 .

[22]  R. Bell,et al.  IEC 61508: functional safety of electrical/electronic/ programme electronic safety-related systems: overview , 1999 .

[23]  Anne Barros,et al.  PFDavg generalized formulas for SIS subject to partial and full periodic tests based on multi-phase Markov models , 2016, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[24]  Sung-Hee Kim,et al.  Availability analysis of subsea blowout preventer using Markov model considering demand rate , 2014 .

[25]  Qian Fan,et al.  Multi-source information fusion based fault diagnosis of ground-source heat pump using Bayesian network , 2014 .

[26]  Jie Zhang,et al.  Study of the damage and failure of the shear ram of the blowout preventer in the shearing process , 2015 .

[27]  Qian Fan,et al.  Performance evaluation of subsea BOP control systems using dynamic Bayesian networks with imperfect repair and preventive maintenance , 2013, Eng. Appl. Artif. Intell..

[28]  Yonghong Liu,et al.  Using Bayesian networks in reliability evaluation for subsea blowout preventer control system , 2012, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[29]  Frédérique Bicking,et al.  Fuzzy multiphase Markov chains to handle uncertainties in safety systems performance assessment , 2013 .

[30]  M. Rausand Reliability of Safety-Critical Systems: Theory and Applications , 2014 .

[31]  Yiliu Liu,et al.  Reliability analysis of large phased-mission systems with repairable components based on success-state sampling , 2015, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[32]  M. Ramakrishnan,et al.  Unavailability estimation of shutdown system of a fast reactor by Monte Carlo simulation , 2016 .

[33]  Marvin Rausand,et al.  Proof-testing strategies induced by dangerous detected failures of safety-instrumented systems , 2016, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[34]  Julia V. Bukowski Modeling and analyzing the effects of periodic inspection on the performance of safety-critical systems , 2001, IEEE Trans. Reliab..

[35]  Enrico Zio,et al.  Evaluation of the robustness of critical infrastructures by Hierarchical Graph representation, clustering and Monte Carlo simulation , 2016, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[36]  Antoine Grall,et al.  Combination of safety integrity levels (SILs): A study of IEC61508 merging rules , 2008 .