Estimating the probability of positive crossmatch after negative virtual crossmatch

This paper estimates the probability of virtual crossmatch failure in kidney exchange matching. In particu-lar, the probability of a positive crossmatch after a negative virtual crossmatch is related to the recipient’s PRA level. Using Dutch kidney exchange data, we find significant evidence that this probability increases non-linearly with PRA level. We estimate a probit model that describes this relationship.

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