The validation of three human reliability quantification techniques--THERP, HEART and JHEDI: Part II--Results of validation exercise.

This is the second of three papers dealing with the validation of three Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) techniques. The first paper introduced the need for validation, the techniques themselves and pertinent validation issues. This second paper details the results of the validation study carried out on the Human Reliability Quantification techniques THERP, HEART and JHEDI. The validation study used 30 real Human Error Probabilities (HEPs) and 30 active Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) assessors, 10 per technique. The results were that 23 of the assessors showed a significant correlation between their estimates and the real HEPs, supporting the predictive accuracy of the techniques. Overall precision showed 72% (60-87%) of all HEPs to be within a factor of 10 of the true HEPs, with 38% of all estimates being within a factor of three of the true values. Techniques also tended to be pessimistic rather than optimistic, when they were imprecise. These results lend support to the empirical validity of these three approaches.

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