THE INFLUENCE OF OPERATIONAL UNCERTAINTIES ON AIRLINE SCHEDULE PLANNING AND PUNCTUALITY CONTROL ISSUES

This paper is aimed at investigating the influence of operational uncertainties on airline schedule design and punctuality control issues. The operation of aircraft turnaround services has become the focal point when airlines try to control delays and expect the design of extra schedule buffer time for aircraft turnaround to absorb delays in aircraft rotation. The growing complex nature of airline schedule design and the growing pressure on aircraft utilization also make the task of schedule punctuality control more difficult than ever. Hence, this paper first investigates operational uncertainties in aircraft turnaround operations and the effects of these uncertainties on schedule punctuality control issues. Two empirical analyses are carried out and the findings indicate that airlines face different uncertainty issues at different airports. Some uncertainties come from schedule planning strategies, such as short aircraft turnaround time, and some are due to operational delays at airports, such as passenger processing problems. From punctuality curve analyses, the authors find that flight punctuality is variant depending on the time of day, operational efficiency of ground crews, and more significantly, the design nature of flight schedules. Simulation models are applied to carry out scenario analyses for schedule planning purposes. Results show that by increasing schedule time 4% on an example route, flight punctuality could be improved by 14%. This example further reveals some thoughts about how flight punctuality and the overall schedule reliability could be managed by considering stochastic factors in schedule design.