U.S. Counties’ Vulnerability to Methamphetamine Labs

This national study analyzes county-level risk factors for methamphetamine manufacture. Neural network and probit models are used to test the effectiveness of county-level characteristics in predicting methamphetamine production levels. Data on all 3,143 counties are drawn from the U.S. DEA’s Clandestine Laboratory Surveillance System, the 2000 U.S. Census and health service resources from the 2004 Area Resource File, and the Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCRP) for the period 2002-2005. The resulting model accurately predicted methamphetamine production levels 85% of the time. The leading variables were existing methamphetamine problems, seizures in contiguous counties, families with “female head of household,” home value, and “percentage of White population.” Several variables that factored heavily in earlier single-community studies had very little impact in this national study. This study’s results suggest a new approach to assessing community vulnerability to drug manufacturer and a need to refocus efforts in fighting the problem.

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