Modeling Air Travel Choice Behavior with Mixed Kernel Density Estimations

Understanding air travel choice behavior of air passengers is of great significance for various purposes such as travel demand prediction and trip recommendation. Existing approaches based on surveys can only provide aggregate level air travel choice behavior of passengers and they fail to provide comprehensive information for personalized services. In this paper we focus on modeling individual level air travel choice behavior of passengers, which is valuable for recommendations and personalized services. We employ a probabilistic model to represent individual level air travel choice behavior based on a large dataset of historical booking records, leveraging several key factors, such as takeoff time, arrival time, elapsed time between reservation and takeoff, price, and seat class. However, each passenger has only a limited number of historical booking records, causing a serious data sparsity problem. To this end, we propose a mixed kernel density estimation (mix-KDE) approach for each passenger with a mixture model that combines probabilistic estimation of both regularity of the individual himself and social conformity of similar passengers. The proposed model is trained and evaluated via the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm with a huge dataset of booking records of over 10 million air passengers from a popular online travel agency in China. Experimental results demonstrate that our mix-KDE approach outperforms the Gaussian mixture model (GMM) and the simple kernel density estimation in the presence of the sparsity issue.