Foliage Quality and its Effect on Budworm Populations: A Modeller's Viewpoint

Although it may soon be possible to alter stand foliage quality and thus reduce budworm reproductivity, the impact of such changes on the budworm-forest system remains unclear. There are currently a number of hypotheses concerning the key biological mechanisms which drive the budworm-forest system. The possible effects of changes in foliage quality are examined for four such alternative hypotheses. Each hypothesis suggests that in the short-term reducing foliage quality will lengthen the interval between out breaks, increase the rate of stand wood volume production, and increase outbreak se yerity--and overall, improve the budworm problem in economic terms. The situation for the long-term is less certain: in some circumstances reducing foliage quality may even aggravate the budworm problem from an economic viewpoint.