CALCULATION OF THE CAPSIZING PROBABILITY OF A SHIP AT BEAM WIND AND SEA

This paper studies the computation of the capsizing probability of a ship under the combined action of the beam wind and beam sea.The ITTC spectrum is used for the description of the wave and the Davenport spectrum is used for the wind in this method.The equivalent linear heeling motion differential equation is solved by the iterative method,and then the linear heeling responding amplitude value operator is obtained.According to the density of the heeling extreme value,we can calculate the capsizing probability of every heeling at random in the unstable domain.Then the capsizing probability is got when the ship is in the no speeding drifting course.Finally,a computational sample of a ship is given.