Application of gray forecast model to transport volume in Jinsha River

By means of systems engineering theories and methods in the forecast, a gray forecast model is set up on the basis of generating mechanism of transport in Jinsha River and the forecast characteristics and in combination of the outcome of forecast system.The cargo flow and volume that passes dams are forecast on the basis of the plan for national economy development. This thesis hopes to offer the reference for hydropower cascade development and navigation planning in the Jinsha river.