Applications of Bayesian Decision Theory to Intelligent Tutoring Systems. Research Report 94-16.

The purpose of this paper is to consider some applications of Bayesian decision theory to intelligent tutoring systems. In particular, it will be indicated how the problem of adapting the appropriate amount of instruction to the changing nature of student's capabilities during the learning process can be situated within the general framework of Bayesian decision theory. Two basic elements of this approach will be used to improve instructional decision making in intelligent tutoring systems. First, it is argued that in many decision-making situations the linear loss model is a realistic representation of the losses actually incurred. Second, it is shown that the psychometric model relating observed test scores to the true level of functioning can be represented by Kelley's regression line from classical test theory. Optimal decision rules will be derived using these two features.

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