Modelling of risk in the building projects

The paper is concerned with the process of risk modelling in the building projects. Using a model of real object is one of the features of the present research works. In some cases, that method is necessary to carry out some forms of experiments. A model is a copy of reality. Modelling enables automation of the various processes and research of unlimited set of objects. Moreover, formal depiction of reality creates conditions for carrying out broad studies of a given problem and reduces the cost of research process. If often happens that there are no alternatives to the above. The author puts emphasis on the possibilities of risk assessment in the building project delivery. A proposal of specification and modelling of risk areas in the building process is put forward. There are five main phases in the building process: initial project, tender, project work, building work (initial work, groundwork, installation, finish work), commissioning and payment settlement. In research process, it is assumed that the building risk is distributed across those five phases. Such an assumption makes the analysis easier and helps to assign priority to the risk areas. A proposal of usage of an ideograph and mathematical models to formal description of the delivery risk in the building projects is outlined. The mathematical model is entirely the author’s own conception. Currently, the opinion polls are carried out among the specialists of civil engineering (management staff and research workers), which are aimed to gain an expert knowledge of a quantitative description of risk. The outcome will be used for the quantification of risk in the building projects. There is also developed an expert computer system (based on the neurone networks) for analysis of risk, and in the following phases, for research of the risk management in the building process.