A False Sense of Security in Applying Handpicked Equations for Stress Test Purposes

The purpose of this paper is to promote the use of Bayesian model averaging for the design of satellite models that financial institutions employ for stress testing. Banks employing JEL Classification: C11, C22, C51, E58, G21

[1]  M. Hoeberichts,et al.  Modelling Scenario Analysis and Macro Stress-testing , 2006 .

[2]  John M. Quigley,et al.  Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options , 1999 .

[3]  Claudio Borio,et al.  Stress-Testing Macro Stress Testing: Does it Live Up to Expectations? , 2012 .

[4]  D. Gray Modeling Banking, Sovereign, and Macro Risk in a CCA Global VAR , 2013, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[5]  Glenn Hoggarth,et al.  Stress Tests of UK Banks Using a VAR Approach , 2005 .

[6]  Walter N. Torous,et al.  Mortgage Prepayment and Default Decisions: A Poisson Regression Approach , 1993 .

[7]  Maher Mohamad Hasan,et al.  Next Generation Balance Sheet Stress Testing , 2011, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[8]  Sveriges Riksbank Macroeconomic impact on expected Default Freqency , 2008 .

[9]  A. Saunders,et al.  Credit risk measurement: Developments over the last 20 years , 1997 .

[10]  Marianna Kudlyak,et al.  Recourse and residential mortgage default: Evidence from US states , 2011 .

[11]  V. Salas,et al.  Credit Risk in Two Institutional Regimes: Spanish Commercial and Savings Banks , 2002 .

[12]  D. Duffie,et al.  Term Structures of Credit Spreads with Incomplete Accounting Information , 2001, World Scientific Reference on Contingent Claims Analysis in Corporate Finance.

[13]  Claus Puhr,et al.  Towards a Framework for Quantifying Systemic Stability , 2012 .

[14]  Yuliya Demyanyk,et al.  Understanding the Subprime Mortgage Crisis , 2008 .

[15]  X. Sala-i-Martin,et al.  Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (Bace) Approach , 2000 .

[16]  M. Crouhy,et al.  A comparative analysis of current credit risk models , 2000 .

[17]  G. Schwarz Estimating the Dimension of a Model , 1978 .

[18]  A comparative anatomy of credit risk models , 1998 .

[19]  Jesús Saurina,et al.  Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation , 2006 .

[20]  Martin Summer,et al.  Systemic Risk Monitor: A Model for Systemic Risk Analysis and Stress Testing of Banking Systems , 2006 .

[21]  Martin Čihák,et al.  Introduction to Applied Stress Testing , 2007, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[22]  Til Schuermann,et al.  Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[23]  Klaus Duellmann,et al.  Crash Testing German Banks , 2012 .

[24]  S. Dées,et al.  Stress-testing euro area corporate default probabilities using a global macroeconomic model☆ , 2010 .

[25]  A. Foglia,et al.  Stress Testing Credit Risk: A Survey of Authorities' Approaches , 2008 .

[26]  Christoffer Kok,et al.  A Macro Stress Testing Framework for Assessing Systemic Risks in the Banking Sector , 2013, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[27]  Yongheng Deng,et al.  Risk-Based Pricing and the Enhancement of Mortgage Credit Availability among Underserved and Higher Credit-Risk Populations , 2005 .