Judgment and Decision Making: Psychological Perspectives

Preface and Acknowledgements. 1. Introduction and Overview: Judgments, Decisions, and Rationality. 2. The Nature and Analysis of Judgment. 3. Judging Probability and Frequency. 4. Judgmental Distortions: The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic and Hindsight Bias. 5. Assessing Evidence and Evaluating Arguments. 6. Covariation, Causation, and Counterfactual Thinking. 7. Decision Making under Risk and Uncertainty. 8. Preference and Choice. 9. Confidence and Optimism. 10. Judgment and Choice over Time. 11. Dynamic Decisions and High Stakes: Where Real Life Meets the Laboratory. 12. Risk. 13. Decision Making in Groups and Teams. 14. Cooperation and Coordination. 15. Intuition, Reflective Thinking, and the Brain. References. Author Index. Subject Index