2015년 통일예측시계 : 통일예측시계(Unification Clock) 운영사업

The objective of this study is to construct an optimal model to predict when unification will occur in order to realize the national objective of achieving peaceful unification. This will be based on an objective measurement and analysis of various factors which may affect unification. This study has been conducted from 2009 to 2011 and has been resumed in 2014 for another five years. This paper summarizes the second year of research. Using ‘unification clock’ as a metaphor, 12 unification clocks have been constructed. Based on this, the Delphi technique has been applied as a means of predicting when unification could occur. According to the results, the general ‘consensus-based’ unification clock pointed to 3:48, which is one minute earlier than the results presented in the latter half of the previous year. In practical terms, results point to a period of stagnation. From November 2014 to early September 2015, results show that there have been no actual changes in inter-Korean relations. Despite the fact that the ‘consensus-based’ unification clock has made a slight progress in terms of politics, economics, and society, the regression in military and international relations areas have led to this outcome. This suggests that inter-Korean military relations have a significant impact in the progression of inter-Korean relations towards peaceful unification, and furthermore that issues of military trust-building and peace settlement can act as decisive factors in the ‘consensus-based’ unification. In the field of international relations, it can be deemed that strengthening of unification diplomacy has not yielded significant impact, or that the international environment has largely not been improved. In the case of ‘South Korea-led unification’ model of unification clock, results have been on the decline since the 2009 research. In this year’s research, results show that the clock has retreated 7 minutes back, pointing to 4:59. Other than a slight progression in the social field, all times in the ‘South Korea-led unification’ model has shown a retreat. In particular, the general ‘South Korea-led unification’ model has, for the first time, retreated as far back as 5 o’clock. Compared to 2009, this is a 57 minute regression. The South Korean government has been pursuing a unification policy centered on the Trust-building Process of the Korean Peninsula and the establishment of a peaceful foundation for unification. Results of this study imply that future efforts must focus on developing a more specific policy as well as active unification diplomacy in order to build a foundation for international cooperation to create a consensus for peaceful unification.