Robust Portfolio Optimization with Jumps ∗

January 9, 2015 We study an infinite horizon consumption-portfolio allocation problem in continuous time where asset prices follow Lévy processes and the investor is concerned about potential model misspecification of his reference model. We derive optimal portfolio holdings in closed form in the presence of model uncertainty, where we analyze perturbations to the reference model in the form of both drift and jump intensity perturbations. Furthermore, we present a method for calculating error-detection probabilities by means of Fourier inversion techniques of the conditional characteristic function in the case when the measure change follows a jump-diffusion process.

[1]  R. C. Merton,et al.  Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case , 1969 .

[2]  A. Hawkes Spectra of some self-exciting and mutually exciting point processes , 1971 .

[3]  R. C. Merton,et al.  Optimum Consumption and Portfolio Rules in a Continuous-Time Model* , 1975 .

[4]  I. Gilboa,et al.  Maxmin Expected Utility with Non-Unique Prior , 1989 .

[5]  Edward J. Schuck,et al.  Optimal Portfolio Allocations to Real Estate , 1996 .

[6]  Fabio Trojani,et al.  A note on robustness in Merton's model of intertemporal consumption , 2002 .

[7]  Jan Kallsen,et al.  Optimal portfolios for exponential Lévy processes , 2000, Math. Methods Oper. Res..

[8]  Larry G. Epstein,et al.  Ambiguity, risk, and asset returns in continuous time , 2000 .

[9]  Raman Uppal,et al.  Model Misspecification and Under-Diversification , 2002 .

[10]  T. Hurd,et al.  The portfolio selection problem via Hellinger processes , 2002 .

[11]  Lars Peter Hansen,et al.  A QUARTET OF SEMIGROUPS FOR MODEL SPECIFICATION, ROBUSTNESS, PRICES OF RISK, AND MODEL DETECTION , 2003 .

[12]  Pascal J. Maenhout Robust Portfolio Rules and Asset Pricing , 2004 .

[13]  F. Trojani,et al.  Robustness and Ambiguity Aversion in General Equilibrium , 2004 .

[14]  Jun Pan,et al.  An Equilibrium Model of Rare-Event Premia and Its Implication for Option Smirks , 2005 .

[15]  Pascal J. Maenhout Robust portfolio rules and detection-error probabilities for a mean-reverting risk premium , 2006, J. Econ. Theory.

[16]  Lars Peter Hansen,et al.  Robust control and model misspecification , 2006, J. Econ. Theory.

[17]  Nicolas Vincent,et al.  Robust Equilibrium Yield Curves , 2007 .

[18]  Fernando Zapatero,et al.  Optimal portfolio allocation with higher moments , 2007 .

[19]  Jessica A. Wachter,et al.  Can Time-Varying Risk of Rare Disasters Explain Aggregate Stock Market Volatility? , 2008 .

[20]  Timothy Cogley,et al.  Robustness and U.S. Monetary Policy Experimentation , 2008 .

[21]  Markus Leippold,et al.  Financial Valuation and Risk Management Working Paper No . 249 Learning and Asset Prices under Ambiguous Information , 2004 .

[22]  A. Sbuelz,et al.  Asset Prices With Locally-Constrained-Entropy Recursive Multiple Priors Utility , 2007 .

[23]  T. R. Hurd,et al.  Portfolio choice with jumps: A closed-form solution , 2009, 0906.2324.

[24]  Lars Peter Hansen,et al.  Fragile beliefs and the price of uncertainty , 2010 .

[25]  Lars Peter Hansen,et al.  Robustness and ambiguity in continuous time , 2011, J. Econ. Theory.

[26]  Maxim Ulrich Inflation Ambiguity and the Term Structure of U.S. Government Bonds , 2011 .

[27]  Maxim Ulrich Observable Long-Run Ambiguity and Long-Run Risk , 2011 .

[28]  Maxim Ulrich Economic Policy Uncertainty & Asset Price Volatility , 2012 .

[29]  Nicole Branger,et al.  Partial Information about Contagion Risk, Self-Exciting Processes and Portfolio Optimization , 2013 .

[30]  I. Drechsler,et al.  Uncertainty, Time-Varying Fear, and Asset Prices , 2013 .