Commuting quantum circuits with few outputs are unlikely to be classically simulatable

We study the classical simulatability of commuting quantum circuits with n input qubits and O(log n) output qubits, where a quantum circuit is classically simulatable if its output probability distribution can be sampled up to an exponentially small additive error in classical polynomial time. First, we show that there exists a commuting quantum circuit that is not classically simulatable unless the polynomial hierarchy collapses to the third level. This is the first formal evidence that a commuting quantum circuit is not classically simulatable even when the number of output qubits is exponentially small. Then, we consider a generalized version of the circuit and clarify the condition under which it is classically simulatable. Lastly, we apply the argument for the above evidence to Clifford circuits in a similar setting and provide evidence that such a circuit augmented by a depth-1 non-Clifford layer is not classically simulatable. These results reveal subtle differences between quantum and classical computation.