Estimating the chance of success of information acquisition for the Norne benchmark case

A key decision in field management is whether or not to acquire information to either improve project economics or reduce uncertainties. A widely spread technique to quantify the gain of information acquisition is Value of Information (VoI). However, estimating the possible outcomes of future information without the data is a complex task. While traditional VoI estimates are based on a single average value, the Chance of Success (CoS) methodology works as a diagnostic tool, estimating a range of possible outcomes that vary because of reservoir uncertainties. The objective of this work is to estimate the CoS of a 4D seismic before having the data, applied to a complex real case (Norne field). The objective is to assist the decision of whether, or not, to acquire further data. The methodology comprises the following steps: uncertainty quantification, selection of Representative Models (RMs), estimation of the acquisition period, production strategy optimization and, finally, quantification of the CoS. The estimates use numerical reservoir simulation, economic analysis, and uncertainty evaluation. We performed analyses considering perfect and imperfect information. We aim to verify the increment in economic return when the 4D data identifies the closest-to-reality reservoir model. While the traditional expected VoI calculation provides only an average value, this methodology has the advantage of considering the increase in the economic return due to reservoir uncertainties, characterized by different RMs. Our results showed that decreased reliability of information affected the decision of which production strategy to select. In our case, information reliability less than 70% is insufficient to change the perception of the uncertain reservoir and consequently decisions. Furthermore, when the reliability reached around 50%, the information lost value, as the economic return became similar to that of the case without information acquisition.

[1]  Guilherme Palermo Coelho,et al.  Selection of Representative Models for Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty , 2016, Comput. Geosci..

[2]  M. D. Dunn.  A Method To Estimate the Value of Well Log Information , 1992 .

[3]  Denis José Schiozer,et al.  Improving the Estimation of the Chance of Success of a 4D Seismic Project Based on Representative Models , 2015 .

[4]  Denis José Schiozer,et al.  Value of information in reservoir development projects: Technical indicators to prioritize uncertainties and information sources , 2017 .

[5]  Reidar Brumer Bratvold,et al.  Value-of-information for model parameter updating through history matching , 2018, Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering.

[6]  E. M. Coopersmith,et al.  A Practical Approach to Evaluating the Value of Information and Real Option Decisions in the Upstream Petroleum Industry , 2002 .

[7]  Véronique Gervais,et al.  Integrating Data of Different Types and Different Supports into Reservoir Models , 2012 .

[8]  J. H. Gerhardt,et al.  On The Value Of Information , 1989 .

[9]  Xian-Huan Wen,et al.  Uncertainty quantification and value of information assessment using proxies and Markov chain Monte Carlo method for a pilot project , 2017 .

[10]  John Waggoner.  Quantifying the Economic Impact of 4D Seismic Projects , 2002 .

[11]  G. Evensen.  Sequential data assimilation with a nonlinear quasi‐geostrophic model using Monte Carlo methods to forecast error statistics , 1994 .

[12]  F. J. Anscombe,et al.  Probability and Statistics for Business Decisions: An Introduction to Managerial Economics under Uncertainty. , 1959 .

[13]  Denis José Schiozer,et al.  RMFinder 2.0: An Improved Interactive Multi-Criteria Scenario Reduction Methodology , 2017 .

[14]  Denis José Schiozer,et al.  Use of Oil Reservoir Simulation to Estimate Value of Flexibility , 2013 .

[15]  Howard Raiffa,et al.  Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices Under Uncertainty , 1968 .

[16]  Elodie Tillier,et al.  Simultaneous Inversion of Production Data and Seismic Attributes: Application to a Synthetic SAGD Produced Field Case , 2012 .

[17]  Louis J. Durlofsky,et al.  Closed-Loop Field Development Under Uncertainty by Use of Optimization With Sample Validation , 2015 .

[18]  Denis José Schiozer,et al.  Evaluation of The Seismic Time-Lapse Acquisition Period In Reservoir Monitoring , 2011 .

[19]  Tapan Mukerji,et al.  Value of Information in the Earth Sciences: Integrating Spatial Modeling and Decision Analysis , 2016 .

[20]  H Raiffa,et al.  Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices under Uncertainty. , 1969 .

[21]  Denis José Schiozer,et al.  Use of representative models in the integration of risk analysis and production strategy definition , 2004 .

[22]  Denis José Schiozer,et al.  Time Lapse Seismic and Engineering Data Integration to Estimate Best Time for Seismic Acquisition Data - (SPE-164914) , 2013 .

[23]  Paulo Roberto Ballin,et al.  Value of Information for a 4D-Seismic Acquisition Project , 2005 .

[24]  Benoit Couet,et al.  Forecast Optimization and Value of Information under Uncertainty , 2011 .

[25]  Reidar Brumer Bratvold,et al.  Value of Information in the Oil and Gas Industry: Past, Present, and Future , 2009 .

[26]  Denis José Schiozer,et al.  Use of Representative Models to Improve the Decision Making Process of Chemical Flooding in a Mature Field (Russian) , 2008 .

[27]  Jiang Xie,et al.  Selecting Representative Models From a Large Set of Models , 2013, ANSS 2013.

[28]  C. Jackson Grayson,et al.  Decisions Under Uncertainty: Drilling Decisions by Oil and Gas Operators. , 1961 .

[29]  Véronique Gervais,et al.  Advanced Integrated Workflows for Incorporating Both Production and 4D Seismic-Related Data into Reservoir Models , 2012 .

[30]  Ronald A. Howard,et al.  Information Value Theory , 1966, IEEE Trans. Syst. Sci. Cybern..

[31]  Denis José Schiozer,et al.  Probabilistic seismic history matching using binary images , 2018 .

[32]  van den Pmj Paul Hof,et al.  Value of information in parameter identification and optimization of hydrocarbon reservoirs , 2015 .

[33]  John Adlam.  The Norne Field Development Overview , 1995 .

[34]  Reidar Brumer Bratvold,et al.  The Value of Flexibility in Managing Uncertainty in Oil and Gas Investments , 2002 .

[35]  Margaret Armstrong,et al.  The Value of Information: A Bayesian Real Option Approach , 2004 .

[36]  Didier Yu Ding,et al.  History Matching of Production and 4D Seismic Data: Application to the Girassol Field, Offshore Angola , 2012 .

[37]  Denis José Schiozer,et al.  Methodology to Estimate the Chance of Success of a Time-lapse Seismic Project Using Reservoir Simulation , 2014 .

[38]  Eduardo Goncalves Dias De Barros,et al.  Value of information in closed-loop reservoir management , 2014 .

[39]  Jiang Xie,et al.  Proxy-Based Work Flow for a Priori Evaluation of Data-Acquisition Programs , 2016 .

[40]  B. Noetinger,et al.  Optimizing Subsurface Field Data Acquisition Using Information Theory , 2010 .