Family history based approach in risk prediction for Parkinson's disease: Additional contribution of familial associated disorders

The aim of our study was to examine the contribution of family history of Parkinson's disease and its associated disorders in the assessment of predictive capacity of risk models for Parkinson’s disease. In a population of 192 patients with Parkinson’s disease and 1659 healthy individuals we investigated the impact of environmental factors and the effects of family history on Parkinson's disease risk. Pesticides exposure, positive family history of Parkinson’s disease and a positive family history of dementia and melanoma were associated to an increased risk for Parkinson’s disease, with results regarding family history of depression near to statistical significance. Smoking and caffeine intake were associated to a decreased risk for Parkinson’s disease. Three risk prediction models were assessed using the area under the curve approach: first model was based on known environmental risk factors, in the second model we added family history of Parkinson’s disease and in the third model we additionally included family history of dementia, melanoma and depression. We showed that inclusion of data on family history of associated disorders (AUC 0.76) improves predictive capacity of risk model for Parkinson’s disease in comparison with the first (AUC 0.62) and the second model (AUC 0.71). We concluded that family history of associated disorders: dementia, depression and melanoma improves predictive capacity of risk models for Parkinson’s disease.