A systems engineering approach to behavioral predictions of an advanced air traffic management concept

Human performance modeling (HPM) tools have recently been developed to accurately predict human workload and environmental performance associated with procedural changes. Often, these changes have unforeseen human performance effects. One such procedural rule change is the concept of mature free flight expected by the year 2025. Free flight is a Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) system capacity strategic goal aimed at reducing flight times, crew resources, maintenance, and fuel costs by reducing rigid airway structures and in-trail spacing. An evaluation of predicted workload effects and aircraft performance associated with current day and free flight operations was performed using two integrated human performance models, air man-machine integration design and analysis system (Air MIDAS) and the integrated performance modeling environment (IPME). In analyses of a common scenario, both tools revealed increases in workload from current day to free flight operations, however the models provided different performance profile predictions depending on the operator's role in the system change. These differences were in the components that made up the overall workload predictions. Some contextual evidence suggested that the proximity of the aircraft as measured by the closest point of approach (CPA) did not impact workload of the simulated operators as demonstrated by the simulated CPA distances under current day operations as compared with free flight operations. This provides evidence that more focus needs to be brought to the effects of context on the workload of the virtual human operator of the National Airspace System (NAS). A validation effort of these contextual findings with human-in-the-loop data is anticipated and required prior to drawing any definite conclusions.