PRA as a management tool: organizational factors and risk-based priorities for the maintenance of the tiles of the space shuttle orbiter

Abstract A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model, developed for the Thermal Protection System (TPS) of the space shuttle orbiter and presented in the previous paper, is used as a management tool to identify root-cause, organizational factors of the various failure modes. The objective is to set priorities in the process of resource allocation to minimize the risk of accident caused by the failure of the TPS. Starting with the technical characteristics of the system and the inputs of the risk assessment model, the approach is to identify the human decisions and actions and the key organizational factors that influence the risk. Among the management factors that affect the reliability of the TPS are time pressures that have occurred in the past, liability concerns and conflicts among contractors, the low status of the tile work and material technicians among maintenance personnel, the absence of priorities in tile testing, and under-recognized couplings among subsystems (such as the external tank insulation as a source of debris that may hit the tiles). It is shown here how using the PRA results to set priorities in the maintenance of the tiles can allow reduction of the overall risk, and how critical zones of debris sources can be identified on the surface of the external tank and the solid rocket booster. It was found, for instance, that detecting and fixing loose tiles in the most risk-critical areas and securing insulation by up to 80%, and securing the insulation of external systems in specified areas could reduce the TPS risk by about 75%.