Catching cognitive biases in an erroneous decision making process

This paper proposes a logic-based model to study erroneous decision making by humans in accident reports. Our model is based on minimal belief revisions and forward chaining. It computes possible mental states that could explain the operator’s behavior. From this sequence, we extract logical patterns that correspond to possible cognitive biases responsible for the erroneous decision making. We apply this model on the crash of Air France’s 447 flight in 2009.

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