A REVIEW OF SYSTEMS COINTEGRATION TESTS

The literature on systems cointegration tests is reviewed and the various sets of assumptions for the asymptotic validity of the tests are compared within a general unifying framework. The comparison includes likelihood ratio tests, Lagrange multiplier and Wald type tests, lag augmentation tests, tests based on canonical correlations, the Stock-Watson tests and Bierens' nonparametric tests. Asymptotic results regarding the power of these tests and previous small sample simulation studies are discussed. Further issues and proposals in the context of systems cointegration tests are also considered briefly. New simulations are presented to compare the tests under uniform conditions. Special emphasis is given to the sensitivity of the test performance with respect to the trending properties of the DGP.

[1]  J. Lyhagen Maximum likelihood estimation of the multivariate fractional cointegrating model , 1998 .

[2]  G. Schwarz Estimating the Dimension of a Model , 1978 .

[3]  P. Phillips,et al.  Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? , 1992 .

[4]  Atsushi Inoue Tests of cointegrating rank with a trend-break , 1999 .

[5]  Andre Lucas,et al.  Cointegration Testing Using Pseudolikelihood Ratio Tests , 1997, Econometric Theory.

[6]  James D. Hamilton Time Series Analysis , 1994 .

[7]  Andrew Harvey,et al.  TESTS OF COMMON STOCHASTIC TRENDS , 2000, Econometric Theory.

[8]  David F. Hendry,et al.  Co-Integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data , 1993, Advanced texts in econometrics.

[9]  H. Akaike A new look at the statistical model identification , 1974 .

[10]  Søren Johansen,et al.  Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend , 1992 .

[11]  James G. MacKinnon,et al.  Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration , 1996 .

[12]  P. Phillips,et al.  Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration , 1990 .

[13]  J. Stock,et al.  Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root , 1992 .

[14]  P. Franses,et al.  Dynamic specification and cointegration , 1991 .

[15]  Peter C. B. Phillips,et al.  Fully Modified Least Squares and Vector Autoregression , 1993 .

[16]  Pentti Saikkonen,et al.  Estimation and Testing of Cointegrated Systems by an Autoregressive Approximation , 1992, Econometric Theory.

[17]  Helmut Lütkepohl,et al.  Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with a Time Trend , 2000 .

[18]  Hans-Eggert Reimers,et al.  Comparisons of tests for multivariate cointegration , 1992 .

[19]  H. Bierens Nonparametric cointegration analysis , 1997 .

[20]  Y. Shin A Residual-Based Test of the Null of Cointegration Against the Alternative of No Cointegration , 1994, Econometric Theory.

[21]  S. Johansen STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF COINTEGRATION VECTORS , 1988 .

[22]  Peter C. B. Phillips,et al.  Vector Autoregressions and Causality , 1993 .

[23]  C. Granger Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification , 1981 .

[24]  Engle Granger Testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with an intercept , 2022 .

[25]  D. Andrews Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation , 1991 .

[26]  A. A. Weiss,et al.  Time series analysis of error-correction models , 2001 .

[27]  Andre Lucas,et al.  Inference on cointegrating ranks using lr and lm tests based on pseudo-likelihoods , 1998 .

[28]  Hiro Y. Toda,et al.  Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes , 1995 .

[29]  Rolf Larsson APPROXIMATION OF THE ASYMPTOTIC DISTRIBUTION OF THE LOG LIKELIHOOD RATIO TEST FOR COINTEGRATION , 1999, Econometric Theory.

[30]  Michael Osterwald-Lenum A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics , 1992 .

[31]  Minxian Yang,et al.  Tests for Cointegration Based on Canonical Correlation Analysis , 1995 .

[32]  Tae-Hwy Lee,et al.  Pitfalls in testing for long run relationships , 1998 .

[33]  Clive W. J. Granger,et al.  Modelling nonlinear relationships between extended-memory variables , 1995 .

[34]  Jesus Gonzalo,et al.  Specification via model selection in vector error correction models , 1998 .

[35]  Priors, Posterior Odds and Lagrange Multiplier Statistics in Bayesian Analyses of Cointegration , 1996 .

[36]  R. Luukkonen,et al.  Testing cointegration in infinite order vector autoregressive processes , 1997 .

[37]  In Choi,et al.  Testing for Cointegration in a System of Equations , 1995, Econometric Theory.

[38]  Carmela Quintos Fully Modified Vector Autoregressive Inference in Partially Nonstationary Models , 1998 .

[39]  Byeongseon Seo Statistical inference on cointegration rank in error correction models with stationary covariates , 1998 .

[40]  H. Lütkepohl,et al.  Trend Adjustment Prior to Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process , 1997 .

[41]  P. Burridge,et al.  A Very Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix , 1991 .

[42]  Helmut Lütkepohl,et al.  COMPARISON OF BOOTSTRAP CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR IMPULSE RESPONSES OF GERMAN MONETARY SYSTEMS , 2001, Macroeconomic Dynamics.

[43]  S. Johansen Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models , 1991 .

[44]  S. Johansen,et al.  Asymptotic Inference on Cointegrating Rank in Partial Systems , 1998 .

[45]  In Choi Residual-Based Tests for the Null of Stationarity with Applications to U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series , 1994, Econometric Theory.

[46]  G. Schlitzer Testing the null of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: an application to the Italian post-war economy , 1996 .

[47]  Bent E. Sørensen,et al.  Finding Cointegration Rank in High Dimensional Systems Using the Johansen Test: An Illustration Using Data Based Monte Carlo Simulations , 1996 .

[48]  H. Reimers Analyse kointegrierter Variablen mittels vektorautoregressiver Modelle , 1991 .

[49]  Stephen Taylor,et al.  Forecasting Economic Time Series , 1979 .

[50]  D. Poskitt Strongly Consistent Determination of Cointegrating Rank Via Canonical Correlations , 2000 .

[51]  J. Doornik,et al.  Inference in Cointegrating Models: UK M1 Revisited , 1998 .

[52]  Donald W. K. Andrews,et al.  An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator , 1992 .

[53]  H. P. Boswijk,et al.  Semi-nonparametric cointegration testing , 2002 .

[54]  Pentti Saikkonen,et al.  Testing for a Moving Average Unit Root in Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models , 1993 .

[55]  H. Lütkepohl,et al.  LOCAL POWER OF LIKELIHOOD RATIO TESTS FOR THE COINTEGRATING RANK OF A VAR PROCESS , 1999, Econometric Theory.

[56]  S. Johansen,et al.  The role of the constant and linear terms in cointegration analysis of nonstationary variables , 1994 .

[57]  In Choi,et al.  Testing the null of stationarity for multiple time series , 1999 .

[58]  J. Stock,et al.  Testing for Common Trends , 1988 .

[59]  H. Lütkepohl,et al.  A lag augmentation test for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process , 1999 .

[60]  Andy Snell Testing for r versus r−1 cointegrating vectors , 1999 .

[61]  Andre Lucas,et al.  A Comparison of Parametric, Semi-nonparametric, Adaptive, and Nonparametric Cointegration Tests , 1999 .

[62]  Hiro Y. Toda Finite Sample Performance of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegrating Ranks in Vector Autoregressions , 1995, Econometric Theory.

[63]  Serena Ng,et al.  Unit Root Tests in ARMA Models with Data-Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag , 1995 .

[64]  Norman R. Swanson,et al.  Testing for stationarity-ergodicity and for comovements between nonlinear discrete time Markov processes , 2000 .

[65]  Ian T. Jolliffe,et al.  Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis , 1993 .

[66]  Mark W. Watson,et al.  Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Cointegrating Vectors are Prespecified , 1995, Econometric Theory.

[67]  G. C. Tiao,et al.  An introduction to multiple time series analysis. , 1993, Medical care.

[68]  D. Harris Principal Components Analysis of Cointegrated Time Series , 1997, Econometric Theory.

[69]  C. Granger,et al.  Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing , 1987 .

[70]  H. Lütkepohl,et al.  Making Wald Tests Work for Cointegrated Var Systems , 1996 .

[71]  Helmut Lütkepohl,et al.  Order Selection in Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process , 1997 .

[72]  Alfred A. Haug,et al.  Tests for cointegration a Monte Carlo comparison , 1996 .

[73]  Helmut Lütkepohl,et al.  Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process With Structural Shifts , 2000 .

[74]  Helmut Lütkepohl,et al.  Impulse response analysis of cointegrated systems , 1992 .

[75]  Gregory C. Reinsel,et al.  Estimation and Testing for Unit Roots in a Partially Nonstationary Vector Autoregressive Moving Average Model , 1995 .

[76]  Mehmet Caner Tests for cointegration with infinite variance errors , 1998 .

[77]  Jesus Gonzalo,et al.  Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships , 1994 .

[78]  Guy Judge,et al.  Small sample testing for cointegration using the bootstrap approach , 1998 .

[79]  Robert F. Engle,et al.  Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems , 1987 .

[80]  Gregory C. Reinsel,et al.  VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS WITH UNIT ROOTS AND REDUCED RANK STRUCTURE:ESTIMATION. LIKELIHOOD RATIO TEST, AND FORECASTING , 1992 .

[81]  John C. Chao,et al.  Model selection in partially nonstationary vector autoregressive processes with reduced rank structure , 1999 .

[82]  H. Akaike,et al.  Information Theory and an Extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle , 1973 .

[83]  Helmut Lütkepohl,et al.  TESTING FOR THE COINTEGRATING RANK OF A VAR PROCESS WITH AN INTERCEPT , 2000, Econometric Theory.

[84]  P. Perron,et al.  A note on Johansen's cointegration procedure when trends are present , 1993 .

[85]  Clive W. J. Granger,et al.  Nonlinear stochastic trends , 1997 .

[86]  S. Johansen The Power Function of the Likelihood Ratio Test for Cointegration , 1991 .

[87]  Minxian Yang,et al.  On cointegration tests for VAR models with drift , 1996 .

[88]  C. Sims,et al.  Vector Autoregressions , 1999 .

[89]  Herman K. van Dijk,et al.  Direct cointegration testing in error correction models , 1994 .

[90]  Carmela Quintos Analysis of cointegration vectors using the GMM approach , 1998 .

[91]  In Choi Asymptotic Normality of the Least-Squares Estimates for Higher Order Autoregressive Integrated Processes with Some Applications , 1993, Econometric Theory.

[92]  Hiro Y. Toda Finite Sample Properties of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegrating Ranks when Linear Trends are Present , 1994 .

[93]  Clive W. J. Granger,et al.  NONLINEAR TRANSFORMATIONS OF INTEGRATED TIME SERIES , 1991 .

[94]  Ernst Schaumburg,et al.  Likelihood analysis of seasonal cointegration , 1999 .

[95]  Consistent Estimation of the Number of Cointegration Relations in a Vector Autoregressive Model , 1998 .

[96]  Peter C. B. Phillips,et al.  Econometric Model Determination , 1996 .

[97]  J. Doornik,et al.  Approximations to the Asymptotic Distributions of Cointegration Tests , 1998 .