Modeling and forecasting electricity loads: A comparison

In this paper we study two statistical approaches to load forecasting. Both of them model electricity load as a sum of two components – a deterministic (representing seasonalities) and a stochastic (representing noise). They differ in the choice of the seasonality reduction method. Model A utilizes differencing, while Model B uses a recently developed seasonal volatility technique. In both models the stochastic component is described by an ARMA time series. Models are tested on a time series of system-wide loads from the California power market and compared with the official forecast of the California System Operator (CAISO).

[1]  P. Brockwell,et al.  Time Series: Theory and Methods , 2013 .

[2]  R. Weron,et al.  Modeling electricity loads in California: ARMA models with hyperbolic noise , 2001, Signal Process..

[3]  R. Weron,et al.  Modeling electricity loads in California: a continuous-time approach , 2001, cond-mat/0103257.

[4]  Carlos E. Pedreira,et al.  Neural networks for short-term load forecasting: a review and evaluation , 2001 .

[5]  M. Smith.  Modeling and Short-Term Forecasting of New South Wales Electricity System Load , 2000 .

[6]  D.W. Bunn,et al.  Forecasting loads and prices in competitive power markets , 2000, Proceedings of the IEEE.

[7]  Emanuel Pimentel Barbosa,et al.  Short‐term forecasting of industrial electricity consumption in Brazil , 1999 .

[8]  Richard A. Davis,et al.  Introduction to time series and forecasting , 1998 .

[9]  ByoungSeon Choi,et al.  Arma Model Identification , 1992 .

[10]  Richard A. Davis,et al.  Time Series: Theory and Methods (2nd ed.). , 1992 .

[11]  G. C. Tiao,et al.  Consistent Estimates of Autoregressive Parameters and Extended Sample Autocorrelation Function for Stationary and Nonstationary ARMA Models , 1984 .

[12]  Spyros Makridakis,et al.  Forecasting: Methods and Applications , 1979 .

[13]  O. Barndorff-Nielsen.  Exponentially decreasing distributions for the logarithm of particle size , 1977, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. A. Mathematical and Physical Sciences.

[14]  M. Kozłowski,et al.  Analiza metod prognozowania procesu zapotrzebowania na energię elektryczną , 2001 .

[15]  Steven C. Wheelwright,et al.  Forecasting: Methods and Applications, 3rd Ed , 1997 .

[16]  Shien-Ming Wu,et al.  Time series and system analysis with applications , 1983 .